Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:10:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

50
0x5095…c97c
world · 40 markets active 15d ago
1.5score
+$83,283 +23%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$83,283 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Net worth$0
Realized+$83,283
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses30 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage231d
Avg bet$9,172
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 0 History 40 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1,594
30 days+$3,094
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? Jun 02 $1,852 +$69 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $84,797 +$1,524 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $23,500 +$1,500 +6%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $899 +$1,522 +169%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Jan 31 $832 +$68 +8%
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? Jan 01 $3,607 +$29,164 +809%
Ukraine Tomahawk missile strike by December 31? Jan 01 $582 +$191 +33%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 01 $45,894 +$2,078 +4%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 01 $24,000 +$5,964 +25%
Will Barys win the Genesis Cup? Dec 21 $65 −$65 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 21 $212 +$37 +18%
Georgia vs. Alabama Dec 08 $8,522 −$8,522 -100%
Commanders vs. Vikings Dec 08 $27,298 −$26,980 -99%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 08 $1,090 +$45 +4%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 07 $19,474 −$11,561 -59%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 07 $5,695 −$4,155 -73%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 06 $755 −$755 -100%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 06 $31,621 +$21,127 +67%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Dec 02 $9,253 −$4,449 -48%
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31? Dec 02 $739 +$3,165 +428%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Dec 01 $4,100 +$4,240 +103%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Nov 21 $217 +$262 +121%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Nov 21 $2,000 +$3,741 +187%
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur Nov 15 $15,810 +$1,190 +8%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 by December 31? Nov 14 $15,564 +$636 +4%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Nov 13 $3,120 +$1,680 +54%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 13 $283 +$13 +5%
ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Ben Shelton vs Felix Auger-Al Nov 12 $1,080 −$478 -44%
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor F Nov 11 $5,486 +$6,641 +121%
Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition Nov 10 $754 +$820 +109%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $12,234 +$30,896 +252%
Will the Democrats 66 win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Nov 03 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Trump say "Patriot" or "Tomahawk" 3+ times during events with the Nov 03 $725 −$725 -100%
Netherlands Parliamentary Election: D66 vs VVD Nov 03 $294 +$136 +46%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Nov 03 $9,985 +$15,217 +152%
Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by October 31? Nov 01 $636 +$448 +70%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Oct 28 $1,396 +$4,656 +334%
Will Trump meet with Putin by November 30? Oct 21 $1,352 +$640 +47%
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31? Oct 16 $1,091 +$2,136 +196%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Oct 11 $7 +$1,214 +17032%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 43% +$8,182
other 19% +$30,921
sports 16% −$28,013
politics 9% +$22,124
crypto 8% +$19,706
economics 5% +$29,105
culture 0% +$1,259
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $4,454 14d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $18,694 14d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $194 14d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $9 16d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $1,649 16d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $782 21d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $96 21d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $7 21d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $7 21d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $241 21d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $7 21d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $7 21d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $9,644 21d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $578 21d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $113 21d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $7 21d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $134 21d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $8 21d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $20 21d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 94¢ $1,711 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 94¢ $2 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 94¢ $0 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 94¢ $19 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 94¢ $16 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 94¢ $188 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 94¢ $21,564 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $35,150 27d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $34,998 28d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $14,999 29d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 97¢ $495 132d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+93.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +4.0% -5.9% 100% 0% -7.0%
≤90d 3 +4.0% -5.9% 100% 0% -7.0%
all 40 +114.1% +93.7% 75% 52% +10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +93.7% 52% +10.8%
10% ← realistic here +75.2% 50% +0.2%
15% +58.2% 45% -9.5%
20% +42.7% 40% -18.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records