Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:09:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5091…4b08 other 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$745 (-54%) realized −$726 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%12W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$110
7 days−$665
14 days−$735
30 days−$735
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$241
other 50% −$513
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-65.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -62.0% -65.6% 17% 17% -62.2%
≤30d 72 -62.2% -65.8% 17% 17% -61.8%
≤90d 72 -62.2% -65.8% 17% 17% -61.8%
all 72 -62.2% -65.8% 17% 17% -61.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -65.8% 17% -61.8%
10% -69.1% 17% -65.5%
15% -72.1% 15% -68.8%
20% -74.8% 15% -71.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -62% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -64% → late -60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$17 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$726
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses12 / 60
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 79
History coverage14d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $50 $31 −$19 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $15 +$13 +84%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 +$9 +90%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $4 +$4 +109%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$31 +304%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$35 +114%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 −$70 -69%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: England 0 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 +$6 +31%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $28 −$27 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$10 +95%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $28 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 5h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 6h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 6h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 6h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 12h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $15 16h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 32¢ $26 16h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $10 16h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 7¢ $2 16h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in BUY 2¢ $2 16h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $20 28h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 28h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 35h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 35h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 6¢ $4 35h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 35h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 36h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 36h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 36h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 36h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 36h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $41 37h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 37h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 37h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 37h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.68 · official $30.68 (match) · 123 history records