Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:55:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
50 0x5090…9e15 sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$131 (+18%) realized +$137 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days+$112
14 days+$112
30 days+$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$280
other 22% −$159
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +22.0% +10.4% 25% 25% +11.4%
≤30d 10 +16.6% +5.5% 30% 30% +10.2%
≤90d 10 +16.6% +5.5% 30% 30% +10.2%
all 10 +16.6% +5.5% 30% 30% +10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.5% 30% +10.2%
10% -4.6% 30% -0.4%
15% -13.8% 30% -10.0%
20% -22.3% 30% -18.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$178 vs −$58 · ×3.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized+$137
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 15
History coverage18d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 18¢ 18¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-3%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 16¢ 14¢ $49 $45 −$5 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $49 −$48 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $53 −$52 -98%
Haiti leading at halftime? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $70 +$308 +442%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 13 $51 +$171 +334%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 11 $99 −$97 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $60 +$54 +90%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $39 −$39 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.51 · official $91.51 (match) · 18 history records