Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:44:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x508d…791a other 165 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,025 (-9%) realized −$1,025 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate5%8W / 157L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days−$111
14 days−$191
30 days−$511
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$363
world 24% −$254
politics 23% −$182
tech 9% −$289
culture 6% −$57
economics 6% −$19
sports 1% −$12
crypto 1% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -5.1% -14.1% 0% 0% -13.0%
≤30d 126 -8.2% -17.0% 2% 1% -14.7%
≤90d 165 -12.0% -20.3% 5% 4% -19.1%
all 165 -12.0% -20.3% 5% 4% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 4% -19.1%
10% -28.0% 2% -26.8%
15% -34.9% 2% -33.9%
20% -41.3% 2% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,025
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses8 / 157
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)165 / 165
History coverage60d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 165 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? Jun 21 $56 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $32 −$1 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $17 −$2 -11%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 21 $62 −$3 -5%
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by more than 15%? Jun 21 $58 −$2 -3%
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? Jun 21 $104 −$3 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $72 −$3 -4%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 21 $18 −$1 -7%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 20 $264 −$12 -5%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 20 $111 −$1 -0%
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? Jun 20 $39 −$9 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $52 −$1 -2%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 20 $80 −$2 -3%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 20 $75 −$2 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 20 $65 −$2 -2%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen Jun 19 $18 $0 -2%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 18 $96 −$6 -6%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 18 $138 −$2 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $48 −$3 -5%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 17 $15 −$1 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$2 -4%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 17 $44 −$1 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $36 −$2 -6%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $641 −$16 -2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 17 $21 −$1 -4%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $129 −$2 -1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 16 $235 −$8 -3%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 16 $26 −$3 -10%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $40 −$3 -8%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 16 $54 $0 -1%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 16 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 15 $7 −$1 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $77 −$2 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 15 $9 −$1 -6%
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? Jun 15 $17 −$1 -8%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 15 $93 −$11 -12%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 14 $17 $0 -1%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $31 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 14 $129 −$4 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $72 −$1 -1%
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market clos Jun 14 $9 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $195 −$4 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $72 −$15 -21%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 14 $40 −$1 -2%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 14 $148 −$3 -2%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $17 $0 -2%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? Jun 14 $7 −$1 -9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 13 $12 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? SELL No 74¢ $10 1h
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? SELL No 74¢ $45 1h
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? BUY No 73¢ $56 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $14 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $14 3h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $15 7h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $17 7h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 59¢ $22 16h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 60¢ $37 16h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 62¢ $62 16h
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by more than 15%? SELL No 58¢ $56 21h
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by more than 15%? BUY No 59¢ $58 21h
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? SELL No 68¢ $101 22h
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? BUY No 69¢ $104 22h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $47 23h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $49 23h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 24h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 24h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $21 24h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $23 24h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 77¢ $120 26h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 83¢ $129 26h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL No 74¢ $66 28h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL No 75¢ $45 28h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 74¢ $111 28h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 28h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 28h
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? SELL Yes 20¢ $30 29h
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? BUY Yes 26¢ $39 29h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 83¢ $132 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 773 history records