Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:13:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

50
0x508a…9b9c
crypto · 9 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$8 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $58 −$53 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$19 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $43 +$54 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $27 +$20 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$17 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$7 +128%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $11 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $11 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+45.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +60.2% +45.0% 56% 56% -13.5%
≤30d 9 +60.2% +45.0% 56% 56% -13.5%
≤90d 9 +60.2% +45.0% 56% 56% -13.5%
all 9 +60.2% +45.0% 56% 56% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +45.0% 56% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here +31.1% 56% -21.8%
15% +18.4% 56% -29.3%
20% +6.8% 56% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records