Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:52:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

50 0x5089…df71 crypto 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip

Net edge-40%after slip

Net WR26%break-even

Win rate26%6W / 17L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$29per market

Trades / day3.2pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit86%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$137

7 days−$62

14 days−$62

30 days−$62

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +26%

net ROI/market (all)-37.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	-30.7%	-37.3%	26%	26%	-18.9%
≤30d	23	-30.7%	-37.3%	26%	26%	-18.9%
≤90d	23	-30.7%	-37.3%	26%	26%	-18.9%
all	23	-30.7%	-37.3%	26%	26%	-18.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-37.3%	26%	-18.9%
10%	-43.3%	26%	-26.6%
15%	-48.7%	26%	-33.7%
20%	-53.8%	26%	-40.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 61% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -31% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -23% → late -38% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$47 vs −$20 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.82 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$10

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)26%

Wins / losses6 / 17

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions0

Markets (closed)23 / 29

History coverage10d

Avg bet$29

Trades / day3.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 23 Trades

no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Jun 16	$15	+$11	+73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Jun 16	$26	−$25	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Jun 16	$41	−$41	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Jun 16	$11	−$11	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Jun 16	$11	+$28	+266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Jun 16	$11	−$11	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$5	+105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Jun 16	$53	−$50	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Jun 16	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Jun 16	$46	−$43	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Jun 16	$26	+$31	+119%
ITF Tokyo: Yuto Oki vs Shinji Hazawa	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 16	$10	+$35	+344%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 14	$192	+$169	+88%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$4	−$4	-97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$92	−$90	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	BUY Up	56¢	$15	14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$26	31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	BUY Up	2¢	$5	38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	BUY Down	55¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	BUY Down	62¢	$31	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	BUY Up	26¢	$11	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	BUY Down	26¢	$11	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	BUY Up	14¢	$11	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	BUY Down	22¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$27	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	BUY Down	2¢	$27	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	BUY Up	31¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	BUY Down	2¢	$27	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	BUY Down	2¢	$19	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	BUY Up	37¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	BUY Up	15¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$26	3h
ITF Tokyo: Yuto Oki vs Shinji Hazawa	BUY Shinji Hazawa	35¢	$5	4h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY Tampa Bay Rays	37¢	$10	4h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks	BUY Los Angeles Angels	11¢	$5	4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY	24¢	$31	5h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a dr	BUY	34¢	$31	11h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY	36¢	$31	13h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$10	13h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AND	BUY	33¢	$31	16h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? AND	BUY	13¢	$51	33h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND W	BUY	6¢	$62	36h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records