Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:57:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5088…cfc5 sports 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$283 (-8%) realized −$70 · open −$213
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%24W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$246
7 days+$246
14 days+$246
30 days+$246
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$484
other 5% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -14.0% -22.2% 43% 39% +6.3%
≤30d 28 -14.0% -22.2% 43% 39% +6.3%
≤90d 56 -17.0% -24.9% 43% 39% -18.1%
all 56 -17.0% -24.9% 43% 39% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 39% -18.1%
10% -32.1% 39% -25.9%
15% -38.7% 39% -33.1%
20% -44.7% 38% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$46 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized−$70
Unrealized−$213
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses24 / 32
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions7
Markets (closed)56 / 64
History coverage57d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score No 39¢ 38¢ $61 $60 −$1 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Under 41¢ 40¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 42¢ 40¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Under 18¢ 18¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner EDward Gaming 40¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 41¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Aurora Gaming 42¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $99 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $391 −$35 -9%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $23 +$25 +105%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $76 +$49 +65%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $93 +$87 +93%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $93 +$44 +48%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 +$27 +135%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $31 +$52 +171%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $126 +$130 +103%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $18 −$18 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $48 +$64 +134%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 +$11 +105%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $39 +$32 +83%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $69 +$52 +75%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $31 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $154 −$154 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner May 16 $76 +$48 +64%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 16 $19 +$23 +124%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $76 −$75 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner May 16 $61 +$69 +114%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 16 $76 −$75 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner May 16 $99 −$98 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 16 $64 −$63 -98%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner May 16 $61 +$75 +123%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 16 $61 +$52 +86%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 16 $30 +$41 +134%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs ex-HEROIC - Game 2 Winner May 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 16 $68 +$39 +58%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner May 16 $58 −$58 -99%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $46 +$48 +105%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs ex-HEROIC - Game 1 Winner May 16 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Apr 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs South America Rejects (BO3) - DreamLeague Divisio Apr 29 $51 −$48 -95%
LoL: Fnatic vs Shifters - Game 1 Winner Apr 29 $48 +$3 +7%
LoL: G2 NORD vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - Prime League 1st Divisi Apr 28 $51 −$51 -99%
Dota 2: Cheeki_Breeki vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Apr 28 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition vs Kaufland Hangry Knights - Game 1 Apr 28 $50 +$30 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 18¢ $9 33m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $51 34m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 39¢ $11 36m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 39¢ $51 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 40¢ $20 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 40¢ $51 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 39¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $51 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $41 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $51 4h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 74¢ $20 4h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 74¢ $10 4h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 74¢ $15 4h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 74¢ $9 4h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 74¢ $8 4h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 74¢ $8 4h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 74¢ $5 4h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 25¢ $25 4h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner SELL OG 67¢ $191 5h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner SELL OG 67¢ $10 5h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 35¢ $5 5h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 25¢ $7 6h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 25¢ $3 6h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 25¢ $4 6h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 31¢ $8 6h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 33¢ $6 6h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 31¢ $16 6h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 41¢ $41 6h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 58¢ $58 6h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 81¢ $88 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.61 · official $167.61 (match) · 158 history records