Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:45:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5087…09be world 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$299 (-1%) realized +$1,319 · open −$1,618
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate73%77W / 28L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$290per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$5,142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$168
7 days+$188
14 days+$206
30 days+$1,319
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$1,315
politics 20% −$332
other 17% −$1,256
weather 4% −$121
sports 1% +$113
economics 1% +$7
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +3.9% -6.0% 90% 10% -6.2%
≤30d 29 +5.7% -4.4% 93% 14% -0.7%
≤90d 105 +5.0% -5.0% 73% 10% -5.8%
all 105 +5.0% -5.0% 73% 10% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.0% 10% -5.8%
10% ← realistic here -14.1% 7% -14.8%
15% -22.4% 5% -23.1%
20% -30.0% 3% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$23 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.11 per $1 lost it wins $3.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$5,142
Realized+$1,319
Unrealized−$1,618
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses77 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions33
Markets (closed)105 / 138
History coverage79d
Avg bet$290
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 84¢ 80¢ $2,524 $2,419 −$105 (-4%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $549 $557 +$8 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 93¢ 94¢ $393 $396 +$3 (+1%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 84¢ 91¢ $356 $386 +$30 (+8%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $390 $381 −$9 (-2%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 72¢ $1,300 $158 −$1,142 (-88%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 92¢ 100¢ $129 $140 +$12 (+9%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 20¢ $496 $124 −$372 (-75%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $97 $97 −$0 (-0%)
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $82 $82 +$1 (+1%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 70¢ 89¢ $61 $78 +$17 (+28%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $73 $76 +$3 (+3%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 92¢ 94¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 100¢ $35 $37 +$2 (+5%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 94¢ 96¢ $23 $23 +$1 (+2%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+4%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Yes 88¢ 100¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+13%)
State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30? No 91¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 45¢ 88¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+94%)
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 38¢ 16¢ $12 $5 −$7 (-60%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 66¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 20 $4,344 +$168 +4%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $160 +$2 +1%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Jun 18 $115 +$1 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $7 −$1 -10%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $409 +$9 +2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $2 $0 +2%
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $8 +$1 +7%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $51 +$4 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $54 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $17 +$4 +23%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $232 +$16 +7%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $66 +$1 +2%
Will Rae Huang win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $16 +$1 +5%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 06 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $129 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $7 +$1 +10%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 04 $119 +$12 +10%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $3 $0 +3%
Kash Patel out by December 31? Jun 02 $40 −$11 -27%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 01 $32 +$14 +42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,999 +$514 +26%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $752 +$6 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $642 +$11 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $2,100 +$448 +21%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 26 $1,002 +$33 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $1,052 +$77 +7%
Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican prima May 22 $100 +$4 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 21 $69 −$10 -14%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $230 +$17 +8%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $61 −$61 -100%
Will John Fleming finish first in the first round of the Louisiana Rep May 17 $123 +$2 +2%
Will Julia Letlow finish first in the first round of the Louisiana Rep May 17 $95 +$1 +2%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $248 +$6 +2%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $91 +$8 +9%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $2,164 +$184 +8%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 11 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 09 $403 −$9 -2%
Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Au May 09 $41 +$7 +18%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 07 $107 −$50 -47%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 06 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary ele May 06 $23 +$1 +2%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? May 04 $700 +$68 +10%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? May 03 $1 +$8 +774%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $2,538 +$65 +2%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? May 01 $8 +$1 +8%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 01 $347 +$19 +5%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $62 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $184 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $343 8h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 8h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $4 9h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $2 9h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $1 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $1 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $1 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $1 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $1 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $1 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $2 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $1 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $1 9h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 9h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $29 9h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $186 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $2 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $1 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $51 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $1 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $1 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $1 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $125 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $1 9h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $186 9h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $97 23h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $93 23h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $32 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,142.20 · official $5,141.78 (match) · 1767 history records