Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:05:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
50 0x5084…7cf2 crypto 266 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,016 (+2%) realized +$1,727 · open +$289
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate48%121W / 133L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$503per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$449est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$7,473now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$525
7 days+$613
14 days+$605
30 days+$1,260
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$123
other 16% +$1,007
crypto 5% −$58
world 0% −$28
politics 0% −$25
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-39.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -56.7% -60.9% 23% 10% -8.2%
≤30d 74 -47.9% -52.9% 28% 15% -7.7%
≤90d 253 -32.3% -38.8% 48% 28% -9.0%
all 254 -32.6% -39.0% 48% 28% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.0% 28% -9.0%
10% -44.8% 23% -17.7%
15% -50.2% 7% -25.6%
20% -55.1% 5% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$44 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$7,473
Realized+$1,727
Unrealized+$289
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses121 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$449
Open positions12
Markets (closed)254 / 266
History coverage149d
Avg bet$503
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 254 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 88¢ $1,500 $1,497 −$3 (-0%)
Will Haiti be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $1,000 $1,014 +$14 (+1%)
Will Tunisia finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 76¢ 84¢ $800 $890 +$90 (+11%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 91¢ $500 $700 +$200 (+40%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 95¢ $500 $548 +$48 (+10%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 81¢ $500 $519 +$19 (+4%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 68¢ $500 $493 −$7 (-1%)
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 83¢ 81¢ $500 $492 −$8 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 84¢ $500 $469 −$31 (-6%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 74¢ $500 $409 −$91 (-18%)
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 80¢ 95¢ $250 $299 +$49 (+20%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland England 90¢ 96¢ $134 $143 +$8 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 107 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 +$28 +27%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $101 −$32 -32%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5,002 +$49 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2,007 +$238 +12%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $504 +$188 +37%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $4,800 +$190 +4%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $202 −$6 -3%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $252 −$4 -2%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $253 −$9 -4%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $18,919 −$66 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $3,415 −$360 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $2,108 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will India win? Jun 08 $5,908 +$466 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs Pakistan May 31 $302 −$17 -6%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $2,211 +$399 +18%
Will Vaibhav Sooryavanshi win the 2026 IPL Orange Cap? May 31 $30 −$9 -31%
Will Shubman Gill win the 2026 IPL Orange Cap? May 30 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 −$9 -17%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 30 $2,312 +$98 +4%
T20 Asian Games, Women, Qualifier: Malaysia vs Nepal May 30 $571 −$145 -25%
Will Sai Sudharsan win the 2026 IPL Orange Cap? May 29 $31 −$30 -98%
Will New Zealand win? May 29 $2,005 +$309 +15%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 28 $819 −$406 -50%
T20 Asian Games, Women, Qualifier: Indonesia vs Nepal May 28 $50 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 86¢ $502 1h
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag BUY Yes 83¢ $503 1h
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $1,004 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 45¢ $69 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 64¢ $101 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 78¢ $101 2h
Will Tunisia finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 74¢ $101 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 35¢ $51 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 72¢ $504 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 88¢ $1,004 11h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 90¢ $1,003 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $5,002 11h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan SELL India 100¢ $4,990 12h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 96¢ $4,687 12h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 96¢ $113 12h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY England 90¢ $134 15h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $195 21h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $248 21h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 65¢ $244 21h
Will Haiti be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 93¢ $1,002 26h
Will Tunisia finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 60¢ $202 32h
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 80¢ $252 32h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $252 32h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $253 32h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $202 33h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $501 33h
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $502 33h
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $501 33h
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $502 33h
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $503 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,473.25 · official $7,473.38 (match) · 774 history records