trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be between 5 and 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 2¢ | $18 | $21 | +$3 (+15%) |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 8? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $30 | $0 | −$30 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET | Up | 43¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET | Jun 14 | $58 | −$58 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET | Jun 14 | $27 | −$27 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET | Jun 14 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 11 | $11 | −$3 | -26% |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? | Jun 11 | $50 | −$1 | -2% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 10? | Jun 10 | $130 | −$56 | -43% |
| Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? | Jun 10 | $10 | +$9 | +89% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 9? | Jun 10 | $19 | −$18 | -97% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? | Jun 09 | $50 | −$33 | -66% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET | Jun 09 | $21 | −$10 | -49% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET | Jun 09 | $5 | +$1 | +14% |
| Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun | Jun 08 | $30 | +$31 | +102% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 8? | Jun 08 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | Jun 07 | $110 | −$47 | -43% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET | Jun 06 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET | Jun 06 | $96 | −$93 | -96% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET | Jun 06 | $11 | −$6 | -56% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET | Jun 06 | $16 | −$8 | -53% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 14 | -40.9% | -46.5% | 21% | 21% | -51.2% |
| ≤30d | 18 | -48.8% | -53.7% | 17% | 17% | -58.3% |
| ≤90d | 18 | -48.8% | -53.7% | 17% | 17% | -58.3% |
| all | 18 | -48.8% | -53.7% | 17% | 17% | -58.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -53.7% | 17% | -58.3% |
| 10% | -58.1% | 11% | -62.3% |
| 15% | -62.2% | 11% | -65.9% |
| 20% | -65.9% | 11% | -69.3% |