Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:32:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
50 0x5082…049d world 140 markets active 1h ago coverage 603d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,441 (+3%) realized +$4,778 · open −$337
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%66W / 67L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,055per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$204est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$865now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,581
7 days+$1,645
14 days+$3,215
30 days+$2,699
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$12,021
politics 31% −$7,659
sports 11% +$188
finance 8% −$1,743
economics 4% +$122
tech 2% +$255
other 2% +$1,248
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +17.8% +6.6% 67% 67% +15.7%
≤30d 12 -10.3% -18.8% 33% 33% +8.0%
≤90d 74 +9.2% -1.2% 50% 42% -5.1%
all 133 +5.2% -4.8% 50% 40% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 40% -6.3%
10% -13.9% 29% -15.3%
15% -22.2% 22% -23.5%
20% -29.8% 17% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$1,109) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$416 vs −$344 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

603d coverage
Net worth$865
Realized+$4,778
Unrealized−$337
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses66 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$204
Open positions7
Markets (closed)133 / 140
History coverage603d
Avg bet$1,055
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? Yes 92¢ 95¢ $385 $398 +$13 (+3%)
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 46¢ 76¢ $200 $333 +$133 (+67%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $111 $119 +$7 (+7%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 60¢ 1¢ $472 $8 −$465 (-98%)
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? Yes 21¢ 3¢ $29 $4 −$25 (-86%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 49¢ 42¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 83¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $392 −$8 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 24 $5,251 +$1,589 +30%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J Jun 20 $253 +$64 +25%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 14 $522 −$223 -43%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $3,626 +$1,794 +50%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 08 $583 −$366 -63%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $611 −$70 -11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $415 +$110 +27%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el May 29 $1,701 −$38 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 28 $259 −$63 -24%
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? May 27 $67 −$67 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $254 −$23 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $4,838 +$1,120 +23%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 20 $368 +$621 +169%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $1,116 +$666 +60%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-Ma May 12 $31 +$209 +669%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10? May 08 $301 −$204 -68%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 05 $615 −$195 -32%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 05 $710 −$280 -39%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 01 $498 +$293 +59%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 1? May 01 $1,019 −$489 -48%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 01 $1,620 +$260 +16%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 30? Apr 30 $593 −$293 -49%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 29? Apr 30 $4 +$5 +127%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on April 28? Apr 29 $135 −$135 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 28? Apr 29 $1,107 −$101 -9%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 2 Apr 28 $403 −$93 -23%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 28 $184 +$188 +102%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 28 $296 +$722 +244%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 27 $620 +$320 +52%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $205 +$15 +8%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 2 Apr 25 $8 +$4 +50%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 25 $270 +$311 +115%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $140 −$60 -43%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 23 $96 +$207 +216%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 21 $956 −$406 -42%
Will 40-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 1 Apr 21 $260 −$260 -100%
Will 30-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 1 Apr 21 $66 −$66 -100%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 21 $402 +$48 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 21 $3,420 +$542 +16%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 19 $165 +$48 +29%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 19 $76 −$3 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 19 $386 +$27 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $652 +$49 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Apr 17 $3,546 −$1,736 -49%
Will Trump say "Great Big Beautiful Bill" during No Tax on Tips Roundt Apr 16 $48 −$16 -33%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 14 $2,448 −$1,581 -65%
Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? Apr 14 $187 +$31 +16%
Will 40-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12 Apr 14 $219 +$778 +356%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-Ju BUY Yes 92¢ $252 1h
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-Ju BUY Yes 92¢ $134 2h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $384 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 57¢ $6,840 2h
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-Ju BUY Yes 21¢ $8 3d
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-Ju BUY Yes 21¢ $21 3d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 10¢ $73 4d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 4d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 5d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $559 6d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 26¢ $3 8d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J SELL Yes 35¢ $303 8d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 30¢ $25 9d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 30¢ $75 9d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 30¢ $1 9d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 30¢ $118 9d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 30¢ $6 9d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 30¢ $6 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $876 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $1,965 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $22 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $17 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $6 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $22 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $43 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $141 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $2 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $2 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $864.61 · official $864.61 (match) · 2091 history records