Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:15:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
50 0x507c…8015 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 39d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$93 (-7%) realized −$87 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$129
7 days+$195
14 days−$12
30 days+$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$61
sports 25% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +81.3% +64.0% 100% 100% +65.8%
≤30d 8 -10.8% -19.3% 50% 50% +0.1%
≤90d 11 -22.9% -30.2% 45% 45% -17.5%
all 11 -22.9% -30.2% 45% 45% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.2% 45% -17.5%
10% -36.9% 45% -25.4%
15% -43.0% 36% -32.6%
20% -48.6% 27% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$82 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized−$87
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage39d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 59¢ 56¢ $133 $127 −$6 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $145 +$129 +89%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $89 +$65 +73%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $142 −$138 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $57 −$56 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $59 +$64 +109%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $22 −$21 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $57 −$56 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $230 +$96 +42%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $149 −$147 -99%
Will CF Cruz Azul vs. Pumas de la UNAM end in a draw? May 25 $111 +$38 +35%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $77 −$75 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 59¢ $135 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $274 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 52¢ $145 8h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $89 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 9¢ $142 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 38¢ $57 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $59 11d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $22 11d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $57 12d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $230 18d
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $149 35d
Will CF Cruz Azul vs. Pumas de la UNAM end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $111 38d
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $77 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.23 · official $129.50 · 17 history records