Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:24:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x507c…85ef crypto 32 markets active 6h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (141 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$31,914 (-32%) realized −$31,914 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%13W / 19L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,071per market
Trades / day141.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$32,978
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (141 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-33.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -26.7% -33.7% 41% 41% -40.5%
≤30d 32 -26.7% -33.7% 41% 41% -40.5%
≤90d 32 -26.7% -33.7% 41% 41% -40.5%
all 32 -26.7% -33.7% 41% 41% -40.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover141.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.7% 41% -40.5%
10% -40.0% 41% -46.2%
15% ← realistic here -45.8% 38% -51.4%
20% -51.1% 38% -56.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$4,846) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -30% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,064 vs −$3,148 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31,914
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses13 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3,071
Trades / day141.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $2,021 −$1,959 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 24 $4,914 −$4,773 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $4,028 +$2,827 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 24 $6,027 −$5,847 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $636 −$615 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $5,028 −$4,896 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 24 $5,038 −$4,897 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $3,032 −$2,940 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $1,359 +$1,649 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 24 $6,066 +$4,602 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $5,824 −$5,637 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 24 $2,024 +$1,679 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 24 $4,231 +$3,625 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 24 $4,058 +$2,320 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 24 $3,405 −$3,283 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 24 $3,300 +$824 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 24 $5,019 −$4,846 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 24 $1,103 −$1,069 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $5,032 −$4,901 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $813 +$610 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $904 +$1,390 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 24 $5,052 −$4,901 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 24 $134 −$129 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $1,885 +$1,430 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $2,023 +$1,586 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 24 $1,829 −$1,770 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 24 $2,388 +$1,720 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 24 $3,537 −$3,432 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 24 $3,528 +$2,564 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 24 $1,470 −$1,428 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $349 −$338 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $2,220 −$2,141 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1,099 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $497 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $424 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $651 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1,363 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $205 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1,001 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1,694 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $712 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $582 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $298 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $168 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1,243 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $439 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $586 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $731 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $278 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $982 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $541 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $861 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $614 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $448 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $646 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $279 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $644 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $143 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $493 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1,279 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1,990 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $713 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 152 history records