Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:20:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5078…420f crypto 1072 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (79 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$33,718 (+39%) realized +$33,718 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate8%89W / 997L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day79.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,325
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (79 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 351 +12.4% +1.7% 13% 11% -11.5%
≤30d 1086 +4.8% -5.2% 8% 7% -8.1%
≤90d 1086 +4.8% -5.2% 8% 7% -8.1%
all 1086 +4.8% -5.2% 8% 7% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 7% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -14.3% 6% -16.9%
15% -22.6% 5% -24.9%
20% -30.2% 4% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$159 vs −$161 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$33,718
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses89 / 997
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1086 / 1072
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$80
Trades / day79.3
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1086 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$7 -4094%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $0 +$5 +8854%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $0 +$3 +2753%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$1 -2178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$2 -3034%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$15 -14651%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -377%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$6 -8776%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$3 -12258%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $0 +$1 +2148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $0 +$1 +945%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $0 −$5 -8863%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$14 -10257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$20 -24747%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $1,472 +$382 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $363 −$359 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $714 +$539 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $1,292 −$1,280 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $346 −$342 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $225 +$487 +217%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $22 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $724 +$653 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $251 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $256 +$136 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $489 −$489 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $523 −$515 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $546 +$870 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $255 +$87 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $253 +$45 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $451 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $35 +$23 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $727 −$706 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $1,016 +$333 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $68 −$67 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $351 +$13 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $456 +$355 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $438 −$433 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $210 −$190 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $195 −$195 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1,064 +$344 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $42 +$42 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $304 +$80 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $51 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.34 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records