Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:23:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5076…e15d sports 770 markets active 1h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$114 (-0%) realized −$111 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%417W / 352L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$118est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1,482now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$278
7 days−$286
14 days−$108
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$304
other 29% −$384
weather 2% −$39
crypto 2% −$19
world 1% −$258
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -29.5% -36.2% 37% 32% -13.7%
≤30d 223 -7.1% -15.9% 51% 48% -9.7%
≤90d 487 -9.8% -18.4% 52% 48% -10.4%
all 769 -7.4% -16.2% 54% 51% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 51% -10.4%
10% -24.3% 46% -19.0%
15% -31.6% 37% -26.8%
20% -38.3% 25% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$28 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$1,482
Realized−$111
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses417 / 352
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$118
Open positions3
Markets (closed)769 / 770
History coverage246d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 769 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $700 $695 −$5 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $700 $691 −$9 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $85 $96 +$11 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 108 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 8? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 8? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 8? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 8? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 8? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,706 −$238 -14%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $37 +$7 +18%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1,030 −$58 -6%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 19 $22 +$15 +67%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $11 +$10 +86%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $41 +$34 +85%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $19 +$11 +61%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia a Jun 18 $17 +$10 +59%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $11 +$9 +79%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $8 −$4 -48%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,335 +$118 +9%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,097 +$13 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $42 +$23 +56%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $65 +$35 +54%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $36 +$29 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$3 -79%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $50 −$36 -72%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 +$30 +156%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -81%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 −$3 -46%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $15 +$15 +99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $61 +$39 +64%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $25 +$16 +62%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$6 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 14 $11 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $6 +$8 +134%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $25 +$10 +42%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -65%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 +$1 +6%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 +$10 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $720 42m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $720 42m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1,469 43m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $524 11h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $44 11h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $483 11h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $37 13h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $37 13h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $22 16h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) SELL G2 100¢ $21 16h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 52¢ $20 17h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,182 18h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 53¢ $25 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 54¢ $15 21h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 53¢ $11 21h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 23h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 23h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 23h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 23h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 23h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 23h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 23h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 23h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 23h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 24h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 24h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 24h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 24h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 24h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,481.53 · official $1,481.53 (match) · 2132 history records