Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:26:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
50 0x5074…f6ce other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$17 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$102
7 days+$102
14 days+$165
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$14
sports 5% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-57.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +63.1% +47.5% 100% 100% +47.5%
≤30d 5 -34.8% -41.0% 40% 40% -0.7%
≤90d 7 -53.4% -57.8% 29% 29% -10.1%
all 7 -53.4% -57.8% 29% 29% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.8% 29% -10.1%
10% -61.9% 29% -18.7%
15% -65.6% 29% -26.5%
20% -68.9% 29% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$34 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized+$17
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage71d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 57¢ $98 $94 −$4 (-4%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 36¢ $97 $89 −$9 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $162 +$102 +63%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$63 +63%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $30 −$29 -96%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $50 −$48 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $31 −$31 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $100 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $100 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $162 10h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $100 9d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 7¢ $30 27d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 21¢ $50 27d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 55¢ $50 27d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $31 69d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.52 · official $182.52 (match) · 13 history records