Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:09:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5073…16a7 other 349 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 92d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,657 (+4%) realized +$1,497 · open +$160
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate36%113W / 202L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day35.4pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$2,718now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days+$113
14 days+$245
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$373
other 24% +$512
finance 17% +$291
politics 11% +$80
economics 6% +$56
sports 2% +$366
weather 1% −$76
tech 0% −$8
crypto 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -29.8% -36.5% 50% 40% +4.2%
≤30d 62 -23.4% -30.7% 34% 23% -8.9%
≤90d 313 +1.4% -8.2% 35% 29% -5.9%
all 315 +1.9% -7.8% 36% 30% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 30% -5.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 22% -14.7%
15% -24.7% 17% -22.9%
20% -32.1% 14% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$16 · ×2.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$2,718
Realized+$1,497
Unrealized+$160
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses113 / 202
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions35
Markets (closed)315 / 349
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$130
Trades / day35.4
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 315 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 75¢ 78¢ $452 $466 +$14 (+3%)
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting? Yes 36¢ 54¢ $178 $267 +$89 (+50%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 50¢ 62¢ $202 $250 +$48 (+24%)
Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? Yes 70¢ 56¢ $244 $194 −$51 (-21%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 62¢ 64¢ $186 $190 +$4 (+2%)
Bank of England rate hike in 2026? No 64¢ 79¢ $135 $167 +$32 (+24%)
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting? Yes 77¢ 94¢ $130 $160 +$29 (+23%)
Will the South African Reserve Bank hold at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 40¢ 42¢ $151 $155 +$4 (+2%)
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision? Yes 82¢ 92¢ $111 $124 +$12 (+11%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 72¢ 56¢ $158 $122 −$36 (-23%)
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%? Yes 22¢ 33¢ $78 $116 +$38 (+49%)
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision? No 79¢ 92¢ $79 $92 +$12 (+16%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 15¢ $63 $74 +$12 (+18%)
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $68 $67 −$1 (-2%)
Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after August 2026 meeting? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $53 $49 −$4 (-8%)
Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the July meeting? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $41 $40 −$1 (-2%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? No 71¢ 70¢ $36 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting? Yes 68¢ 40¢ $41 $24 −$17 (-42%)
Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+5%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $19 $20 +$2 (+10%)
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-24%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+4%)
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the June meeting? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $28 +$7 +24%
Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 25 bps after August 2026 me Jun 22 $8 −$7 -88%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $642 +$122 +19%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $15 −$14 -90%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $12 +$8 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $9 +$6 +65%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 18 $1,575 +$130 +8%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 17 $633 +$1 +0%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -61%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 17 $89 −$27 -31%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $128 +$20 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $77 −$4 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $619 −$111 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 16 $814 +$277 +34%
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the July Jun 15 $496 +$2 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$10 -24%
Will the South African Reserve Bank hike by 25 bps at the July 2026 me Jun 15 $5 −$2 -48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $1,038 +$406 +39%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $88 −$35 -39%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 15 $103 −$30 -29%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -58%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Warsh say "Job" 15+ times during June Press Conference? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $132 −$35 -27%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Jun 15 $78 +$16 +20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 15 $174 −$40 -23%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 15 $1,745 +$89 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $3,527 −$443 -13%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 14 $413 +$35 +8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$6 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Jun 12 $415 −$97 -23%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 +$2 +44%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 11 $174 −$3 -2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $121 −$16 -13%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Jun 10 $17 +$3 +17%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in May? Jun 10 $16 −$15 -98%
Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Jun 09 $57 −$26 -46%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in May? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%? Jun 05 $21 +$29 +137%
Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 02 $25 −$8 -30%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 01 $76 −$9 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $3,931 +$10 +0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $181 −$69 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting? SELL Yes 93¢ $158 37m
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes 44¢ $45 1h
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 6.00% and 6.49%? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes 43¢ $9 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 57¢ $46 1h
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rat SELL Yes 60¢ $9 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $18 1h
Bank of England rate hike in 2026? BUY No 75¢ $3 1h
Bank of England rate hike in 2026? BUY No 75¢ $3 1h
Bank of England rate hike in 2026? BUY No 75¢ $23 1h
Bank of England rate hike in 2026? BUY No 75¢ $4 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $59 1h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes 36¢ $11 14h
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the June meeting? BUY Yes 97¢ $9 21h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 23h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes 46¢ $47 23h
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rat SELL Yes 55¢ $54 23h
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rat SELL Yes 67¢ $33 23h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes 29¢ $19 23h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes 27¢ $6 23h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 BUY No 71¢ $36 23h
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%? BUY Yes 42¢ $26 23h
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 23h
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 23h
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 6.50% and 6.99%? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 23h
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 6.00% and 6.49%? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 23h
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 23h
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 23h
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 23h
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,718.27 · official $2,718.27 (match) · 3500 history records