Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:24:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
50 0x5072…17be other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$117 (+5%) realized +$709 · open −$592
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$1,408now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$528
other 5% +$36
crypto 2% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +26.5% +14.4% 56% 56% +22.5%
≤30d 16 +26.5% +14.4% 56% 56% +22.5%
≤90d 16 +26.5% +14.4% 56% 56% +22.5%
all 16 +26.5% +14.4% 56% 56% +22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.4% 56% +22.5%
10% +3.5% 56% +10.7%
15% -6.5% 31% +0.0%
20% -15.7% 25% -9.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +55% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$3 · ×5.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.06 per $1 lost it wins $7.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1,408
Realized+$709
Unrealized−$592
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage3d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Under 49¢ 34¢ $2,000 $1,408 −$592 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$13 +42%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $91 +$27 +29%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$30 +59%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$13 +32%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -8%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $20 +$18 +90%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $1 +$7 +650%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$6 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2,031 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $91 11h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 13h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 13h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 13h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $81 18h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 75¢ $40 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $51 30h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 35h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 36h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 37h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,407.76 · official $1,408.16 (match) · 29 history records