Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:57:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x506f…5d39 world 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 290d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate32%14W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% −$6
politics 26% −$1
other 25% $0
crypto 5% +$1
economics 5% $0
sports 5% $0
tech 3% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 14 +0.5% -9.1% 50% 7% -10.8%
≤90d 15 +0.5% -9.1% 47% 7% -10.7%
all 44 -1.0% -10.4% 32% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 2% -10.0%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

290d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses14 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage290d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 65¢ 66¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $8 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $12 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $1 $0 +20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $35 +$2 +6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $35 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $31 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $43 −$8 -19%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $40 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $60 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $44 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jan 31 $10 $0 -3%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 21 $3 $0 -4%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 21 $1 $0 +1%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Sep 21 $1 $0 -10%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 21 $62 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Sep 21 $2 $0 -8%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Sep 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 18 $23 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $32 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 17 $32 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 17 $32 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 16 $2 $0 -4%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 16 $1 $0 -22%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $4 $0 -3%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 13 $66 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 09 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Nether Sep 08 $33 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 02 $33 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $33 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Sep 02 $33 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $38 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $23 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $11 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $34 29h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $2 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $32 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $2 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $13 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $19 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $12 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $12 24d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 25d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 25d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $37 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $33 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $33 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 66¢ $35 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 66¢ $35 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $15 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $17 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $35 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $43 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $5 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.99 · official $37.99 (match) · 152 history records