Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:17:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
50 0x506f…e8bb other 248 markets active 23h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (91 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$1,911 (+3%) realized +$3,445 · open −$1,534
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +96% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +51% what you keep after slip
Net edge+51%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate64%117W / 67L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$258per market
Trades / day91.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$6,768now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 36d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$15,238
politics 22% +$3,733
other 18% −$1,643
crypto 9% −$2,062
tech 7% +$745
economics 6% −$312
finance 2% −$53
sports 1% +$46
culture 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (91 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+77.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +34.1% +21.4% 39% 39% -50.0%
≤30d 148 +45.9% +32.0% 57% 36% +4.1%
≤90d 184 +96.2% +77.5% 64% 40% +15.3%
all 184 +96.2% +77.5% 64% 40% +15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover91.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +77.5% 40% +15.3%
10% ← realistic here +60.5% 32% +4.3%
15% +45.0% 25% -5.8%
20% +30.8% 21% -15.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +96% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +162% → late +31% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$194 vs −$83 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.13 per $1 lost it wins $4.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$6,768
Realized+$3,445
Unrealized−$1,534
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses117 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions65
Markets (closed)184 / 248
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$258
Trades / day91.4
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 65 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 61¢ 52¢ $2,432 $2,100 −$332 (-14%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 77¢ $780 $770 −$9 (-1%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 75¢ 77¢ $678 $699 +$21 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 79¢ $529 $475 −$54 (-10%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 64¢ $350 $321 −$29 (-8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 95¢ $188 $190 +$1 (+1%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 84¢ 86¢ $168 $173 +$5 (+3%)
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? No 84¢ 90¢ $149 $162 +$12 (+8%)
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election? No 90¢ 84¢ $170 $159 −$11 (-6%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ 76¢ $51 $151 +$100 (+196%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 65¢ 72¢ $107 $120 +$13 (+12%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 43¢ 58¢ $88 $119 +$31 (+35%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $82 $117 +$35 (+43%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 88¢ 99¢ $88 $99 +$11 (+13%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day? No 89¢ 96¢ $89 $96 +$7 (+8%)
Will Waymo operate in 7 cities on June 30 2026? No 92¢ 98¢ $87 $92 +$5 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $131 $90 −$40 (-31%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $128 $88 −$41 (-32%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $73 $72 −$1 (-1%)
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? No 64¢ 72¢ $51 $57 +$6 (+13%)
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 86¢ 73¢ $67 $57 −$10 (-15%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 33¢ 38¢ $50 $56 +$7 (+14%)
Will Tuyo launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 54¢ 44¢ $59 $47 −$11 (-19%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $57 $45 −$12 (-21%)
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? No 85¢ 84¢ $43 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by December 31, 2026? Jun 28 $6 +$2 +29%
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? Jun 25 $327 −$79 -24%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 24 $853 −$193 -23%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $11 +$47 +422%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$22 +108%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 22 $233 +$69 +30%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $42 −$42 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,416 −$1,416 -100%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $68 +$8 +11%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $162 +$20 +12%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $157 −$52 -33%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a Jun 22 $21 +$132 +644%
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $52 −$1 -3%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 21 $274 −$63 -23%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1 $0 -35%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? Jun 21 $18 $0 +2%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30? Jun 21 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Kim Doo-kyum win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 21 $10 +$491 +4913%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $10.5B by June 30? Jun 21 $74 −$74 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 21 $248 +$20 +8%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June? Jun 21 $43 −$43 -100%
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026? Jun 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $529 −$31 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 21 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June? Jun 21 $59 −$11 -18%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 21 $138 −$138 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 21 $96 −$13 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 21 $301 −$251 -83%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 21 $1,588 −$147 -9%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $785 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? Jun 21 $22 +$174 +776%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 21 $51 −$17 -34%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 21 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 21 $184 −$184 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $660 +$11 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 21 $515 −$108 -21%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 21 $482 +$22 +5%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 21 $450 −$50 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $154 22h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $155 29h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $6 30h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $150 30h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $157 45h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $158 46h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? SELL No 45¢ $248 3d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $168 3d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $2 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $188 3d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $41 3d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $41 4d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $38 4d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $6 4d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $32 4d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $39 4d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 4d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 4d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $23 4d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $39 4d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $15 4d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $24 4d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $39 4d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 63¢ $81 4d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 15¢ $34 5d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 5d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $32 5d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 97¢ $302 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $38 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,768.31 · official $6,767.86 (match) · 3500 history records