Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:02:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x506c…ed2d other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 370d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate30%12W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% $0
other 35% −$1
politics 7% $0
culture 3% +$1
crypto 3% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 -0.5% -9.9% 21% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 -0.5% -9.9% 21% 0% -9.6%
all 40 -0.9% -10.3% 30% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 2% -9.6%
10% -18.9% 2% -18.3%
15% -26.8% 2% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

370d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses12 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage370d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $53 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $13 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $45 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $2 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $37 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $27 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $30 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 30 $13 −$1 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $85 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 29 $16 $0 +1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $16 $0 +2%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Aug 10 $3 +$2 +70%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday? Aug 10 $17 $0 +3%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 24 $16 +$1 +5%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 05 $8 $0 -3%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 04 $1 $0 +2%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Primoz Roglic win the Tour de France 2025? Jul 03 $9 $0 -0%
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August? Jul 03 $0 $0 -10%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 02 $18 $0 +1%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 01 $19 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 28 $22 $0 +1%
Will Ben Shelton win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe Jun 16 $23 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in June? Jun 14 $22 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jun 14 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $45 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 70¢ $45 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $31 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $14 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $45 13h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $29 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $29 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $19 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $13 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $18 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $6 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $25 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 84¢ $45 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $45 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $9 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $29 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $37 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 132 history records