Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:31:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

50
0x506b…b0fe
other · 261 markets active 2d ago
0.0score
−$2,086 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$210 · open −$1,864
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$33,234
Realized−$210
Unrealized−$1,864
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses113 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$592
Open positions73
Markets (closed)190 / 261
Avg bet$1,423
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 73 History 190 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$570
7 days−$9,168
14 days−$15,302
30 days−$9,518
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $11,277 $11,308 +$31 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 89¢ 85¢ $4,450 $4,230 −$220 (-5%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $3,302 $3,358 +$57 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 49¢ 34¢ $3,355 $2,294 −$1,061 (-32%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $1,296 $1,320 +$24 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 32¢ 55¢ $518 $872 +$354 (+68%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $788 $792 +$4 (+0%)
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $721 $739 +$18 (+3%)
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? No 93¢ 96¢ $651 $674 +$23 (+4%)
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? No 91¢ 96¢ $619 $651 +$32 (+5%)
Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $537 $539 +$3 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $499 $525 +$26 (+5%)
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $517 $520 +$3 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $499 $498 −$2 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 53¢ 69¢ $379 $498 +$118 (+31%)
Will Syria recognize Israel by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $442 $452 +$10 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 41¢ 55¢ $328 $436 +$108 (+33%)
Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $396 $397 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $316 $343 +$26 (+8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $329 $324 −$5 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $267 $274 +$8 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $263 $265 +$2 (+1%)
Will Bangladesh recognize Israel by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $211 $217 +$6 (+3%)
Will Qatar recognize Israel by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $194 $199 +$5 (+3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $164 $160 −$5 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - January 17, 1PM ET Jun 12 $96 +$103 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 12AM ET Jun 12 $324 −$673 -208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $9,710 −$9,273 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $2,361 +$195 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 10 $2,530 −$151 -6%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 09 $404 +$460 +114%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $4,830 +$170 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 in June? Jun 02 $408 +$192 +47%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $2,367 +$233 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 02 $1,832 −$1,832 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 3? Jun 02 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $1,463 +$145 +10%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $25,162 −$10,657 -42%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $713 +$87 +12%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $2,187 +$765 +35%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $95 +$51 +54%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $32,008 +$1,667 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,588 +$16 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? Jun 01 $2,445 +$555 +23%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $2,492 +$582 +23%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? Jun 01 $4,581 +$29 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $5,806 +$1,048 +18%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $223 +$12 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $618 +$305 +49%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $6,477 −$101 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $1,683 +$227 +14%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $343 +$383 +112%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J May 31 $72 −$72 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on May 30? May 31 $27 +$79 +290%
Will MrBeast say "Chocolate" during his next YouTube video? May 30 $52 +$54 +105%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 30 $890 −$20 -2%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $244 +$56 +23%
Will MrBeast say "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" 20+ times during May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on May 29? May 30 $67 +$107 +160%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 30 $47 +$11 +23%
Will MrBeast say "Cash" during his next YouTube video? May 30 $68 −$67 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Prize" during his next YouTube video? May 30 $57 −$57 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 30 $4 +$1 +29%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $414 +$128 +31%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 29 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 29? May 29 $66 −$66 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 28 $793 +$7 +1%
Will MrBeast say "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" 10+ times during May 28 $21 −$20 -99%
LoL: NRG Esports vs Winthrop University (BO5) - North American Challen May 28 $740 −$738 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 28 $346 −$342 -99%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 28 $2,561 −$74 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on May 30? May 28 $19 −$18 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on May 29? May 28 $22 −$21 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 27? May 28 $454 +$401 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on May 27? May 28 $45 +$353 +779%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 46% −$12,787
world 41% +$7,290
sports 8% −$996
other 2% +$3,653
finance 2% −$29
weather 0% +$983
politics 0% +$24
tech 0% +$358
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $23 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $56 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $188 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $57 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $57 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $24 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $58 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $48 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $57 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $133 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $17 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $28 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $172 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $24 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $64 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +4.4% -5.5% 57% 29% -48.9%
≤30d 153 +12.3% +1.6% 58% 42% -13.6%
≤90d 183 +7.3% -2.9% 59% 39% -13.6%
all 190 +6.8% -3.4% 59% 39% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.4% 39% -9.5%
10% -12.7% 32% -18.1%
15% ← realistic here -21.1% 23% -26.0%
20% -28.8% 16% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33,234.16 · official $33,230.73 (match) · 3500 history records