Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:37:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5069…9bde world 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$24 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%30W / 53L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$171now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$4
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$5
other 26% −$11
politics 17% −$24
sports 10% $0
finance 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.2% -11.5% 0% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 27 -0.8% -10.3% 33% 4% -9.4%
≤90d 38 -1.3% -10.7% 26% 3% -9.7%
all 83 -1.8% -11.1% 36% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 2% -9.8%
10% -19.6% 1% -18.4%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$171
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses30 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions4
Markets (closed)83 / 87
History coverage475d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $171 $170 −$1 (-1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 77¢ 99¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $155 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $202 −$11 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $261 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $11 −$1 -6%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $156 −$2 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $183 −$1 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $11 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $337 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $595 +$6 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $166 +$4 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $290 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $365 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $256 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $165 +$1 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $155 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $395 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $492 +$2 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 02 $21 −$8 -38%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $29 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $162 −$1 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $179 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $179 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $158 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $78 +$18 +23%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $149 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 22 $325 +$2 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $107 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $422 +$1 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 27 $141 −$25 -17%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 19 $93 −$5 -5%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $917 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,040 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $906 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1,141 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $118 −$4 -3%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $137 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $71 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Dec 19 $7 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $5 $0 +4%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Jul 31 $4 $0 -4%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Jul 26 $5 $0 -1%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 26 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $171 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $155 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $124 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $31 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $155 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $155 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $113 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $3 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $128 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $75 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $74 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $75 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $15 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $18 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $115 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $32 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $21 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $26 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $79 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 32¢ $11 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 34¢ $11 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $18 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.13 · official $170.14 (match) · 336 history records