Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:04:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5069…e0eb crypto 710 markets active 5d ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$359 (-6%) realized −$359 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%395W / 315L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$598
14 days−$730
30 days−$535
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$535
world 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 -5.6% -14.6% 54% 51% -34.4%
≤30d 669 -7.0% -15.9% 55% 52% -17.5%
≤90d 669 -7.0% -15.9% 55% 52% -17.5%
all 710 -6.8% -15.7% 56% 52% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 52% -17.5%
10% -23.8% 47% -25.4%
15% -31.1% 42% -32.6%
20% -37.9% 34% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$359
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses395 / 315
Open positions0
Markets (closed)710 / 710
History coverage108d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 710 Trades
no open positions (258 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $267 −$258 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $124 −$120 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $60 −$58 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$21 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $59 +$53 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$3 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $28 +$25 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$5 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $310 +$212 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $39 +$37 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $124 −$120 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$6 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$12 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $267 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $124 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $60 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $28 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $47 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $59 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $28 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $28 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $11 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1249 history records