Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:12:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5065…7aa9 crypto 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$80 (-16%) realized −$79 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +2.8% -7.0% 38% 38% -24.8%
≤30d 16 +2.8% -7.0% 38% 38% -24.8%
≤90d 16 +2.8% -7.0% 38% 38% -24.8%
all 16 +2.8% -7.0% 38% 38% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.0% 38% -24.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.9% 31% -32.0%
15% -24.0% 31% -38.5%
20% -31.4% 31% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late -47% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$32 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$79
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 20 $52 −$44 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$10 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 20 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$32 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$51 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$74 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$70 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $8 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $29 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $106 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $27 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.12 · official $29.12 (match) · 30 history records