Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:38:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5063…c853 crypto 463 markets active 0h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$439 (+2%) realized +$446 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate59%272W / 189L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days+$486
14 days+$486
30 days+$497
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$274
world 0% +$3
other 0% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 164 -18.4% -26.1% 45% 24% -4.4%
≤30d 215 -16.6% -24.5% 46% 27% -4.8%
≤90d 311 -13.8% -22.0% 51% 33% -5.7%
all 461 -10.0% -18.6% 59% 30% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 30% -8.4%
10% -26.4% 20% -17.2%
15% -33.5% 15% -25.2%
20% -40.0% 13% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$446
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses272 / 189
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)461 / 463
History coverage172d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 461 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Up 95¢ 90¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Up 94¢ 74¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 142 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $12 +$6 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $510 +$70 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $208 −$41 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $213 +$48 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $101 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $101 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$8 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 19 $13 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 94¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $505 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.19 · official $8.17 · 1124 history records