Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:45:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
50 0x5062…be14 other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$199 (+8%) realized +$200 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate59%23W / 16L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$179
7 days+$186
14 days+$174
30 days+$174
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$88
sports 25% +$50
crypto 2% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -4.7% -13.8% 59% 56% -1.6%
≤30d 39 -5.4% -14.4% 59% 56% -2.5%
≤90d 39 -5.4% -14.4% 59% 56% -2.5%
all 39 -5.4% -14.4% 59% 56% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 56% -2.5%
10% -22.6% 51% -11.8%
15% -30.1% 44% -20.3%
20% -37.0% 31% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$28 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$179
Realized+$200
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses23 / 16
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions6
Markets (closed)39 / 47
History coverage10d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? No 75¢ 74¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? No 72¢ 72¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $61 +$33 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $61 +$30 +50%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $117 +$110 +94%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $431 +$26 +6%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $401 +$47 +12%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $66 −$44 -67%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $30 +$15 +50%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $56 +$11 +19%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$17 +55%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $101 +$62 +62%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $30 +$18 +60%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $36 −$7 -20%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $30 +$10 +34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$19 +62%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$9 +31%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 +$16 +105%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$12 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$43 +140%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$13 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$7 +23%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$13 +83%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 75¢ $30 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $30 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 72¢ $30 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $61 12h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $15 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 23h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $102 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 24h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $401 32h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 33h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 39¢ $9 33h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 34h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 35h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $200 36h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes $1 36h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $200 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $45 45h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 72¢ $15 46h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY Iraq 66¢ $30 46h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 46h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 46h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 44¢ $18 46h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 72¢ $30 46h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $10 47h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.75 · official $178.75 (match) · 88 history records