Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:16:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5061…1b03 sports 550 markets active 2h ago coverage 230d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 230d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,678 (-1%) realized +$244 · open −$1,922
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%270W / 339L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$610per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$578est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$14,121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 230d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$3,145
other 6% −$1,599
politics 5% −$3,090
crypto 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -98.3% -98.4% 1% 1% -64.9%
≤30d 85 -68.7% -71.7% 8% 5% -47.7%
≤90d 171 -34.5% -40.7% 32% 28% -12.1%
all 609 -10.0% -18.5% 44% 38% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 38% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 34% -20.1%
15% -33.4% 29% -27.9%
20% -40.0% 23% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$720) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$403 vs −$350 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$14,121
Realized+$244
Unrealized−$1,922
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses270 / 339
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$578
Open positions7
Markets (closed)609 / 550
History coverage230d ⚠
Avg bet$610
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 609 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 80¢ $5,625 $8,972 +$3,347 (+60%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 99¢ $1,045 $2,474 +$1,429 (+137%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 20¢ $5,625 $2,278 −$3,347 (-60%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $325 $327 +$2 (+1%)
Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $66 $66 +$0 (+0%)
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? Yes 26¢ 64¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+148%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $7 $1 −$6 (-83%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 294 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Buccaneers vs. Seahawks Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Fever vs. Dream Jun 23 $34 −$34 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Suns Jun 23 $49 −$49 -100%
Falcons vs. Patriots Jun 23 $42 −$42 -100%
Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Terence Crawford Jun 23 $89 −$89 -100%
Dodgers vs. Brewers Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bucks vs. Pacers Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Rockets vs. Celtics Jun 23 $131 −$131 -100%
Pistons vs. Grizzlies Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Heat vs. Lakers Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Mavericks vs. Pistons Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will New York City FC win on 2025-10-28? Jun 23 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix? Jun 23 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Juventus FC vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? Jun 23 $45 −$45 -100%
Seahawks vs. Commanders Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Packers vs. Cardinals Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Hornets Jun 23 $82 −$82 -100%
Rangers vs. Astros Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Cardinals vs. Cowboys Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Heat vs. Spurs Jun 23 $61 −$61 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Raptors Jun 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Nuggets vs. Warriors Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Falcons vs. Colts Jun 23 $34 −$34 -100%
Pelicans vs. Nuggets Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Mavericks vs. Rockets Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Broncos vs. Texans Jun 23 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Go Ahead Eagles win on 2025-10-23? Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Everton end in a draw? Jun 23 $41 −$41 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers Jun 23 $97 −$97 -100%
Phillies vs. Dodgers Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Inter win on 2025-10-29? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Packers vs. Steelers Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bucks vs. Raptors Jun 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Guardians vs. Tigers Jun 23 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Manchester United end in a draw? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will West Ham win on 2025-11-02? Jun 23 $83 −$83 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Celtics vs. Pelicans Jun 23 $65 −$65 -100%
Lions vs. Commanders Jun 23 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in September? Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Magic vs. Wizards Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Jazz vs. Suns Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Tigers vs. Marlins Jun 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Getafe win on 2025-10-31? Jun 23 $24 −$24 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bears vs. Ravens Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Phillies vs. Dodgers Jun 23 $23 −$23 -100%
Chargers vs. Raiders Jun 23 $133 −$133 -100%
Bengals vs. Broncos Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of June 202 BUY No 99¢ $66 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $6 30h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $19 30h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $0 32h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $53 7d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $0 7d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $55 8d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 38¢ $38 8d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 55¢ $55 8d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $12 9d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 9d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $0 9d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 9d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 9d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $0 9d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $6 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $2 9d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 9d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $127 9d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 9d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 9d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 9d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 9d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 9d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 9d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $18 9d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 9d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 9d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,120.68 · official $14,120.68 (match) · 3500 history records