Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:18:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x505f…8814 weather 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,171 (-11%) realized −$1,284 · open +$113
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate49%30W / 31L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$387now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$277
7 days−$715
14 days−$715
30 days−$715
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$574
weather 45% −$452
sports 4% +$56
crypto 1% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +11.4% +0.8% 29% 21% -21.8%
≤30d 38 +11.4% +0.8% 29% 21% -21.8%
≤90d 61 +6.8% -3.4% 49% 30% -19.8%
all 61 +6.8% -3.4% 49% 30% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 30% -19.8%
10% -12.6% 11% -27.5%
15% -21.1% 8% -34.5%
20% -28.8% 8% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$64 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$387
Realized−$1,284
Unrealized+$113
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses30 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage82d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 54¢ 76¢ $275 $387 +$113 (+41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $51 +$17 +34%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $200 +$20 +10%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $101 −$26 -26%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $583 −$338 -58%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $632 +$53 +8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $601 +$66 +11%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $703 −$90 -13%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$7 -68%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $101 +$23 +22%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 $0 -5%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 −$4 -84%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$4 -74%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 19 $602 +$64 +11%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $552 +$72 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $496 +$37 +7%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 +$77 +1504%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $20 −$9 -44%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $100 −$15 -15%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3 +$12 +383%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $803 −$513 -64%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 +$17 +165%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$3 -53%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on April 1? Apr 01 $222 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 1? Apr 01 $135 −$135 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 1? Apr 01 $571 −$571 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 1? Apr 01 $7 +$5 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 1? Apr 01 $137 +$20 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on March 31? Mar 31 $121 +$74 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on March 30? Mar 31 $46 +$6 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on March 30? Mar 31 $65 +$8 +12%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ma Mar 31 $106 +$9 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on March 30? Mar 31 $114 −$114 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 30? Mar 31 $118 +$16 +13%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ma Mar 31 $496 +$79 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 65¢ $68 37m
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 80¢ $68 37m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 65¢ $145 38m
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 92¢ $145 38m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $25 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 77¢ $25 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 59¢ $51 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 76¢ $51 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 77¢ $200 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $41 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 7¢ $5 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 99¢ $18 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 47¢ $8 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 49¢ $49 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 66¢ $30 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 77¢ $70 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 61¢ $51 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 53¢ $30 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 24¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 87¢ $241 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 88¢ $502 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $35 19h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 92¢ $632 19h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $667 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $601 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $387.15 · official $387.15 (match) · 291 history records