Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:22:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x505f…645e sports 279 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 3d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1007 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$50,986 (+68%) realized +$51,536 · open −$550
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate21%135W / 522L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$270per market
Trades / day1007.2pace
Fees−$944est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$3,576now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$6,943
other 5% +$98
world 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1007 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-62.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 657 -58.2% -62.2% 21% 18% -26.6%
≤30d 657 -58.2% -62.2% 21% 18% -26.6%
≤90d 657 -58.2% -62.2% 21% 18% -26.6%
all 657 -58.2% -62.2% 21% 18% -26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1007.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -62.2% 18% -26.6%
10% ← realistic here -65.8% 14% -33.7%
15% -69.1% 11% -40.1%
20% -72.2% 8% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -20% → late -97% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$138 vs −$71 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$3,576
Realized+$51,536
Unrealized−$550
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses135 / 522
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$944
Open positions48
Markets (closed)657 / 279
History coverage3d ⚠
Avg bet$270
Trades / day1007.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 657 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Martin Damm 73¢ 44¢ $1,842 $1,094 −$749 (-41%)
Dota 2: Habibis vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Habibis 23¢ 100¢ $220 $953 +$733 (+332%)
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Andrey Rublev 46¢ 72¢ $356 $555 +$199 (+56%)
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Ignacio Buse 73¢ 55¢ $409 $305 −$104 (-25%)
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie Michael Zheng 22¢ 20¢ $282 $246 −$37 (-13%)
Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Ilbirs eSports 84¢ 90¢ $144 $155 +$11 (+8%)
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart Jelena Ostapenko 75¢ 90¢ $102 $121 +$19 (+19%)
Wimbledon ATP: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Botic van de Zandschulp Aleksandar Kovacevic 24¢ 48¢ $36 $71 +$35 (+96%)
Wimbledon ATP: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Botic van de Zandschulp Botic van de Zandschulp 52¢ 52¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Marco Trungelliti 53¢ 56¢ $21 $23 +$1 (+7%)
Brasov: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Franco Roncadelli Franco Roncadelli 59¢ 24¢ $8 $3 −$5 (-60%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 19¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-61%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 0¢ 14¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+3443%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 0¢ 12¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+3011%)
Wimbledon ATP: Aleksandar Vukic vs Jenson Brooksby Aleksandar Vukic 25¢ 0¢ $326 $1 −$325 (-100%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 0¢ 6¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+1360%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 0¢ 5¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+1233%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 0¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1002%)
Dota 2: Habibis vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group B summer bear 23¢ 0¢ $129 $0 −$128 (-100%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 0¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+598%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+471%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+395%)
Wimbledon ATP: Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta Denis Shapovalov 54¢ 0¢ $186 $0 −$186 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+319%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+294%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 449 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Roland Garros ATP: Michael Zheng vs Dino Prizmic Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs fnatic - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $142 −$142 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Pavel Kotov Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 29 $44 −$44 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Damajuana - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Yawara Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: ROSSMANN Centaurs vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO1) - Prime League Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: VfB eSports vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO1) - Prime League Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Alex Molcan vs Felix Gill Jun 29 $115 −$115 -100%
LoL: Joblife vs Ici Japon Corp. Esport (BO1) - LFL Regular Season Jun 29 $45 −$45 -100%
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs SINQU - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $32 −$32 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs SPARTA - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $24 −$24 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 29 $301 −$301 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 29 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 29 $67 −$67 -100%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 29 $314 −$314 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs GenOne (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Jun 29 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $246 −$246 -100%
LoL: Disguised vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $75 −$75 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Giles Hussey Jun 29 $112 −$112 -100%
Counter-Strike: Haunted House vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $278 −$278 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Maya Joint vs Ann Li Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: Voca vs Zomblers (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North A Jun 29 $38 −$38 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Lavked (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 29 $39 −$39 -100%
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs Lilmix - Map 1 Winner Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs UNiTY esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $82 −$82 -100%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs Johnny Speeds - Map 1 Winner Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Priscilla Hon vs Polina Kudermetova Jun 29 $29 −$29 -100%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Voca - Map 3 Winner Jun 29 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 29 $45 −$45 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A Jun 29 $77 −$77 -100%
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs paiN Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $46 −$46 -100%
Geneva Open, Qualification: Kilian Feldbausch vs Nishesh Basavareddy Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Valorant: Esprit Shōnen vs F9 EICAR (BO3) - VCL France: Revolution Sta Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $34 −$34 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie BUY Michael Zheng 23¢ $94 8m
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart BUY Jelena Ostapenko 76¢ $27 11m
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm BUY Marco Trungelliti 53¢ $9 11m
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm BUY Marco Trungelliti 53¢ $12 11m
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart BUY Jelena Ostapenko 75¢ $75 11m
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie BUY Michael Zheng 23¢ $31 14m
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie BUY Michael Zheng 22¢ $72 15m
Wimbledon ATP: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 52¢ $39 15m
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie BUY Michael Zheng 22¢ $88 16m
Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Ilbirs eSports 80¢ $37 16m
Wimbledon ATP: Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta BUY Denis Shapovalov 19¢ $1 22m
Brasov: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Franco Roncadelli BUY Franco Roncadelli 59¢ $8 26m
Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Ilbirs eSports 85¢ $107 29m
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 53¢ $1 35m
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 53¢ $1 35m
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 53¢ $51 35m
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 53¢ $106 35m
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 39¢ $17 38m
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 47¢ $4 40m
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 42¢ $171 41m
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 36¢ $8 43m
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 28¢ $1 48m
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 73¢ $292 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 73¢ $117 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 71¢ $6 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Aleksandar Vukic vs Jenson Brooksby BUY Aleksandar Vukic 23¢ $1 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Aleksandar Vukic vs Jenson Brooksby BUY Aleksandar Vukic 23¢ $6 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Aleksandar Vukic vs Jenson Brooksby BUY Aleksandar Vukic 25¢ $81 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Aleksandar Vukic vs Jenson Brooksby BUY Aleksandar Vukic 21¢ $14 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Aleksandar Vukic vs Jenson Brooksby BUY Aleksandar Vukic 21¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,575.64 · official $3,575.65 (match) · 3500 history records