Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:47:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
50 0x505b…fbe0 other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover
Total PnL −$776 (-3%) realized −$140 · open −$636
Gross ROI / mkt +49% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate44%11W / 14L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$842per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$3,114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,475
7 days−$3,231
14 days−$514
30 days−$514
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$1,741
sports 18% +$591
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +87.0% +69.2% 38% 31% -34.5%
≤30d 25 +49.2% +35.0% 44% 36% -11.8%
≤90d 25 +49.2% +35.0% 44% 36% -11.8%
all 25 +49.2% +35.0% 44% 36% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +35.0% 36% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here +22.0% 32% -20.3%
15% +10.2% 32% -28.0%
20% -0.6% 28% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +49% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$1,025) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late +90% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$655 vs −$551 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$3,114
Realized−$140
Unrealized−$636
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses11 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions4
Markets (closed)25 / 29
History coverage11d
Avg bet$842
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? No 50¢ 50¢ $2,000 $1,980 −$20 (-1%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 72¢ $700 $705 +$5 (+1%)
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 24¢ $1,000 $412 −$588 (-59%)
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia? Yes $50 $17 −$33 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $832 +$498 +60%
Argentina vs. Austria: Neither team to score first? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $340 −$333 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,025 −$970 -95%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,228 +$893 +73%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $230 +$1,436 +623%
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) Jun 21 $361 −$351 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,251 −$2,222 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,540 −$2,500 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2,389 −$203 -8%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $567 −$278 -49%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $34 +$379 +1116%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $131 +$554 +424%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $77 −$75 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5,656 +$2,256 +40%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -74%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $704 −$650 -92%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $2,005 +$1,166 +58%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$4 +15%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $60 +$4 +6%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11 +$12 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1,013 1h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes $51 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $706 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 50¢ $508 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 50¢ $508 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 50¢ $1,015 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $22 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $269 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $269 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 20¢ $136 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 20¢ $136 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $51 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 34¢ $340 41h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No $103 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 40¢ $22 45h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 14¢ $23 45h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 15¢ $23 45h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 15¢ $13 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 58¢ $450 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 58¢ $450 45h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 51¢ $563 45h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 58¢ $22 46h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 58¢ $22 46h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 58¢ $562 46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 12¢ $103 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 12¢ $103 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) BUY Uruguay $361 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $25 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 57¢ $1,125 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,113.70 · official $3,151.29 · 183 history records