trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 50% | 0% | -10.4% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 33% | 0% | -9.9% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +18.4% | +7.1% | 67% | 56% | +1.2% |
| all | 12 | +4.9% | -5.1% | 50% | 42% | -3.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -5.1% | 42% | -3.3% |
| 10% | -14.2% | 25% | -12.5% |
| 15% | -22.5% | 25% | -21.0% |
| 20% | -30.1% | 8% | -28.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 89¢ | 89¢ | $624 | $621 | −$2 (-0%) |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 67¢ | 48¢ | $48 | $35 | −$13 (-28%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? | Jun 22 | $100 | −$3 | -3% |
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | Jun 17 | $52 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | Jun 01 | $1,152 | −$3 | -0% |
| Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | May 17 | $454 | +$177 | +39% |
| Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $472 | −$18 | -4% |
| Will Croatia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? | May 13 | $349 | +$125 | +36% |
| Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parl | Apr 12 | $72 | +$12 | +17% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | Apr 08 | $97 | +$20 | +20% |
| Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31? | Mar 26 | $30 | +$17 | +57% |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t | Mar 05 | $55 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? | Feb 01 | $117 | −$117 | -100% |
| Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general ele | Jan 09 | $58 | −$3 | -5% |