Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:35:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
50 0x505a…516d other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$171 (+5%) realized +$187 · open −$16
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$263per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$656now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$148
politics 23% +$7
world 3% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 9 +18.4% +7.1% 67% 56% +1.2%
all 12 +4.9% -5.1% 50% 42% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 42% -3.3%
10% -14.2% 25% -12.5%
15% -22.5% 25% -21.0%
20% -30.1% 8% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$24 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.44 per $1 lost it wins $2.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$656
Realized+$187
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage165d
Avg bet$263
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 89¢ 89¢ $624 $621 −$2 (-0%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Yes 67¢ 48¢ $48 $35 −$13 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $100 −$3 -3%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 01 $1,152 −$3 -0%
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $454 +$177 +39%
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $472 −$18 -4%
Will Croatia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 13 $349 +$125 +36%
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parl Apr 12 $72 +$12 +17%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 08 $97 +$20 +20%
Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31? Mar 26 $30 +$17 +57%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Mar 05 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Feb 01 $117 −$117 -100%
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general ele Jan 09 $58 −$3 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $627 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 75¢ $97 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 77¢ $100 1h
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $53 4d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $574 20d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $576 20d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $575 20d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $466 20d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $100 20d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $10 20d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 34d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 34d
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 36d
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $453 36d
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $454 36d
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $472 38d
Will Croatia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 79¢ $84 53d
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parl SELL Yes 100¢ $84 70d
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parl BUY Yes 85¢ $72 74d
Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31? SELL Yes $4 88d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 67¢ $48 104d
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? SELL Yes 70¢ $48 104d
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? BUY Yes 72¢ $43 104d
Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31? SELL Yes $19 104d
Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31? SELL Yes $6 106d
Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31? SELL Yes $10 107d
Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31? SELL Yes $7 107d
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? BUY Yes 69¢ $54 108d
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t SELL Yes 60¢ $54 108d
Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31? BUY Yes $30 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $656.01 · official $656.01 (match) · 41 history records