Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:38:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
50 0x5058…c022 crypto 750 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$804 (+1%) realized +$804 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate96%718W / 32L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$278
7 days−$254
14 days−$91
30 days+$328
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$799
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -6.2% -15.1% 90% 2% -15.1%
≤30d 192 +1.8% -7.9% 97% 4% -7.9%
≤90d 563 +1.8% -7.9% 97% 5% -8.0%
all 750 +1.2% -8.5% 96% 6% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 6% -8.5%
10% -17.2% 0% -17.2%
15% -25.2% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$73 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$804
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses718 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)750 / 750
History coverage104d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 750 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1PM ET Jun 29 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9PM ET Jun 29 $100 +$8 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9PM ET Jun 29 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9PM ET Jun 29 $100 +$5 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET Jun 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12PM ET Jun 28 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5PM ET Jun 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 5PM ET Jun 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 7AM ET Jun 27 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7AM ET Jun 27 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET Jun 27 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11AM ET Jun 26 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5AM ET Jun 26 $100 +$11 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET Jun 26 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET Jun 26 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9PM ET Jun 26 $100 +$4 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9PM ET Jun 26 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6PM ET Jun 25 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$5 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 4AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$3 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$4 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$5 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$3 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 7AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$5 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET Jun 21 $100 +$10 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6PM ET Jun 20 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1PM ET Jun 20 $100 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $38 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $37 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $29 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $52 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $23 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $77 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $11 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $89 46h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 5PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 46h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 7AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $39 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $48 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $36 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $64 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $100 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2293 history records