Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:30:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5056…81dc world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate61%19W / 12L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% $0
other 24% −$3
culture 21% +$1
politics 12% +$4
sports 9% $0
finance 2% $0
weather 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.4% -8.3% 50% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 11 -6.1% -15.0% 45% 9% -9.1%
≤90d 11 -6.1% -15.0% 45% 9% -9.1%
all 31 -1.4% -10.7% 61% 6% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 6% -9.3%
10% -19.3% 3% -17.9%
15% -27.1% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses19 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage472d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 85¢ 84¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $8 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $28 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 01 $28 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $49 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $27 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $1 $0 +29%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $27 −$1 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $31 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 17 $104 −$5 -5%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 17 $95 $0 -0%
Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 8.5 Mar 17 $105 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 16 $93 +$2 +2%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Mar 15 $102 $0 +0%
Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $92 +$1 +1%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $87 $0 +0%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 14 $45 $0 +1%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 10 $1 $0 +1%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Dec 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 06 $2 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Trump meets with Carney in March? Mar 29 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 48°F or below on March 25? Mar 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 21 $0 $0 -5%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 21 $16 $0 +1%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or Mar 20 $17 +$3 +18%
Will "Wicked" win Best Original Score at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 03 $17 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $29 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $9 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $21 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $28 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $28 14h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $25 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $3 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $15 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $13 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $28 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $28 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $30 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $26 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $26 18d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $27 18d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $27 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $23 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $23 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.56 · official $28.56 (match) · 80 history records