Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:43:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5056…8c39 crypto 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$22 (-10%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate43%12W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$32
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -40.9% -46.6% 40% 10% -26.9%
≤30d 10 -40.9% -46.6% 40% 10% -26.9%
≤90d 10 -40.9% -46.6% 40% 10% -26.9%
all 28 -22.2% -29.7% 43% 25% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 25% -15.2%
10% -36.4% 14% -23.3%
15% -42.5% 11% -30.8%
20% -48.2% 4% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses12 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage130d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 08 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Feb 08 $27 −$19 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 7AM ET Feb 08 $38 −$5 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 4AM ET Feb 08 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 3AM ET Feb 08 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 2AM ET Feb 08 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1AM ET Feb 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 11PM ET Feb 08 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 10PM ET Feb 08 $15 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 9PM ET Feb 08 $2 +$8 +426%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? Feb 08 $2 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down on February 7? Feb 08 $4 +$1 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down on February 7? Feb 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 7? Feb 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Feb 06 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Feb 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 06 $2 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $13 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $11 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $11 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 83 history records