Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:33:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
50 0x5055…b09b sports 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,763 (-10%) realized −$1,690 · open −$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate22%20W / 73L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$156est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$427now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,275
7 days+$1,271
14 days+$1,273
30 days+$934
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$1,990
other 3% +$216
crypto 3% −$73
weather 1% −$209
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +72.3% +55.9% 50% 38% +42.5%
≤30d 12 +43.7% +30.0% 50% 42% +21.1%
≤90d 51 +13.9% +3.1% 31% 25% -25.8%
all 93 -0.5% -10.0% 22% 18% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 18% -24.9%
10% -18.6% 16% -32.1%
15% -26.5% 16% -38.7%
20% -33.7% 14% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -10% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$410 vs −$139 · ×2.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$427
Realized−$1,690
Unrealized−$73
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses20 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$156
Open positions2
Markets (closed)93 / 95
History coverage121d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 41¢ 36¢ $300 $267 −$33 (-11%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Morocco? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $200 $160 −$40 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $813 +$926 +114%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $205 −$205 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $51 +$403 +785%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 29 $51 −$50 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 29 $871 +$74 +8%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $203 +$142 +70%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +48%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $97 −$97 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $347 −$342 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $102 +$100 +99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $439 −$428 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $26 −$25 -97%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q May 19 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 19 $15 −$13 -82%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Kor May 19 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 17 $42 −$41 -97%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $1,707 −$1,700 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 17 $387 −$380 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $418 +$585 +140%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifi May 17 $1,452 +$101 +7%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 16 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 16 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $36 +$1,721 +4752%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 03 $73 −$71 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 01 $123 −$119 -97%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 29 $221 −$215 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 18 $650 −$644 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 18 $360 +$270 +75%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 17 $30 −$29 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leagu Apr 17 $100 −$99 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 16 $1,028 −$1,022 -99%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Apr 16 $103 −$64 -62%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 16 $510 +$30 +6%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 16 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 16 $406 +$670 +165%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qu Apr 14 $615 −$608 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 11 $667 −$661 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 10 $50 −$49 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 10 $50 −$49 -98%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 10 $430 +$78 +18%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 09 $516 +$221 +43%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 09 $100 −$99 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 08 $471 +$99 +21%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 08 $30 −$29 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 05 $40 −$39 -97%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 05 $30 −$29 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 05 $88 +$483 +550%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $305 36m
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $813 9h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 9h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 92¢ $871 21h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 25h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 32h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 32h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 13d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 2¢ $97 16d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 4¢ $43 17d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 3¢ $100 17d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 28¢ $204 17d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $202 17d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 49¢ $102 17d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 24¢ $51 38d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY HANJIN BRION 6¢ $29 39d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY HANJIN BRION 17¢ $410 39d
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Kiwoom DRX 1¢ $18 40d
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Kiwoom DRX 18¢ $8 40d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q BUY BNK FEARX 67¢ $20 41d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner BUY HANJIN BRION 6¢ $5 41d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner SELL HANJIN BRION 3¢ $2 41d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner BUY HANJIN BRION 13¢ $10 41d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Kor BUY HANJIN BRION 8¢ $10 41d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Anyones Legend 2¢ $1 43d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Anyones Legend 10¢ $41 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $427.07 · official $427.07 (match) · 165 history records