Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:51:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

50
0x5054…149c
other · 34 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$125 +72%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$15 · open +$140
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$294
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$140
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions33
Markets (closed)1 / 34
History coverage80d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%
Chart Positions 33 History 1 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 20¢ 82¢ $50 $208 +$158 (+315%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 23¢ 19¢ $45 $37 −$8 (-18%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 59% +$145
other 32% −$5
world 9% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $293.58 · official $293.60 (match) · 36 history records