Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:18:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
50 0x5053…ada2 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$31 (+3%) realized +$17 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$20
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +4.3% -5.6% 60% 60% -8.8%
≤30d 5 +4.3% -5.6% 60% 60% -8.8%
≤90d 5 +4.3% -5.6% 60% 60% -8.8%
all 5 +4.3% -5.6% 60% 60% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 60% -8.8%
10% -14.6% 20% -17.5%
15% -22.9% 20% -25.5%
20% -30.4% 20% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$45 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage5d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Yes 59¢ 64¢ $76 $84 +$8 (+10%)
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 73¢ 88¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $26 +$18 +72%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $10 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $529 +$61 +12%
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $119 −$90 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $102 +$17 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.86 · official $119.86 (match) · 15 history records