Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:00:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

50 0x5051…0cfe other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$186 (+35%) realized +$186 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +124% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +87% what you keep after slip

Net edge+87%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%4W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$41per market

Trades / day14.1pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit54%portable

Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+102.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	+123.5%	+102.2%	33%	33%	-8.0%
≤30d	12	+123.5%	+102.2%	33%	33%	-8.0%
≤90d	12	+123.5%	+102.2%	33%	33%	-8.0%
all	12	+123.5%	+102.2%	33%	33%	-8.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover14.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+102.2%	33%	-8.0%
10%	+82.8%	33%	-16.8%
15%	+65.2%	33%	-24.8%
20%	+49.0%	33%	-32.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 38% · top 2 71% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +123% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +293% → late -46% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$78 vs −$38 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.03 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$6

Realized+$186

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses4 / 8

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)12 / 13

History coverage2d

Avg bet$41

Trades / day14.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	66¢	68¢	$6	$6	+$0 (+4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$15	+$19	+125%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$241	−$225	-94%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 15	$20	−$20	-99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$31	−$30	-98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 15	$10	−$1	-9%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$51	+$120	+236%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$117	+$71	+61%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 14	$1	$0	-2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$12	−$12	-99%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	Jun 14	$6	−$6	-98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	Jun 13	$6	+$103	+1666%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	33¢	$35	39m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	14¢	$15	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	6¢	$15	2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	92¢	$211	9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	92¢	$30	11h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	66¢	$6	14h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Alex Pereira	56¢	$20	16h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	19¢	$10	17h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	20¢	$10	17h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	21¢	$20	17h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	SELL Justin Gaethje	20¢	$9	18h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	90¢	$172	19h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	21¢	$10	19h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	25¢	$10	19h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	21¢	$10	20h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	30¢	$10	20h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	29¢	$10	21h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	28¢	$10	21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	77¢	$188	22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	46¢	$15	25h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	SELL Yes	3¢	$1	26h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	3¢	$1	26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	47¢	$102	27h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	28¢	$2	39h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	56¢	$10	39h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	BUY Yes	18¢	$6	42h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	SELL Yes	91¢	$109	46h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	BUY Yes	5¢	$6	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.23 · official $6.23 (match) · 28 history records