Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:40:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
50 0x504f…3ddc sports 850 markets active 0h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,495 (+2%) realized +$5,452 · open +$43
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%462W / 374L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$327per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$669now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$35
14 days+$30
30 days+$445
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$3,796
other 18% +$281
politics 2% +$809
economics 1% +$679
crypto 0% −$18
world 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.1% -9.5% 67% 67% -5.0%
≤30d 16 +34.8% +22.0% 75% 75% +23.5%
≤90d 30 +11.3% +0.7% 63% 63% -7.6%
all 836 +3.5% -6.3% 55% 52% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 52% -7.6%
10% -15.3% 48% -16.4%
15% -23.5% 40% -24.5%
20% -31.0% 35% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$208 vs −$243 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$669
Realized+$5,452
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses462 / 374
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions14
Markets (closed)836 / 850
History coverage464d
Avg bet$327
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 836 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 88¢ $220 $220 −$0 (-0%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Over 53¢ 66¢ $100 $124 +$24 (+24%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 23¢ 37¢ $50 $80 +$30 (+59%)
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 93¢ 92¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 85¢ 94¢ $29 $32 +$3 (+11%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 43¢ 42¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 26¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 95¢ 94¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 76¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 94¢ 92¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-3%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 97¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 78¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 14¢ $16 $7 −$9 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 321 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $100 +$65 +65%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $32 +$15 +46%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $81 +$48 +59%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $63 +$19 +31%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $67 −$66 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will there be a double Breen “Bang” during the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $152 +$80 +53%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $50 +$24 +48%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Dylan Harper win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $101 +$28 +27%
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) May 26 $20 +$63 +307%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $101 +$84 +83%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5 May 25 $116 +$92 +79%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5 May 25 $81 +$55 +67%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $102 +$94 +92%
James Harden: Points O/U 18.5 May 07 $51 −$50 -99%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 07 $101 −$100 -99%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Knicks vs. Hawks May 02 $125 +$18 +14%
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Apr 30 $127 −$125 -98%
NBA Playoffs: Rockets vs. Lakers Total Games O/U 5.5 Apr 30 $100 +$40 +40%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 30 $83 +$17 +20%
Will David Bailey be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft? Apr 30 $64 +$59 +92%
Will Arvell Reese be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft? Apr 23 $94 −$31 -33%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 19 $100 −$99 -99%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Apr 19 $114 −$114 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-2.5) Apr 19 $150 −$148 -99%
Brandon Miller: Points O/U 19.5 Apr 16 $25 +$14 +56%
Tyler Herro: Points O/U 22.5 Apr 16 $20 +$25 +124%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 16 $150 +$101 +67%
Will the Charlotte Hornets make the NBA Playoffs? Mar 04 $802 −$802 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 04 $598 +$205 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 13? Feb 13 $286 −$286 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? Feb 13 $50 +$36 +72%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Feb 12 $300 +$22 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Feb 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Feb 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Feb 12 $50 +$5 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 12 $49 −$48 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Feb 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 11 $250 +$55 +22%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 09 $267 +$124 +46%
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $100 +$333 +334%
Spread: Seahawks (-5.5) Feb 09 $50 +$54 +108%
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) Feb 09 $250 +$240 +96%
Will Byron Murphy win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Matthew Stafford win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Feb 06 $2,122 −$328 -16%
Will Mike Vrabel win NFL Coach of the Year? Feb 06 $2,061 +$479 +23%
Will Tetairoa McMillan be the 2025-2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Ye Feb 06 $751 +$79 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $31 13m
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 53¢ $101 25m
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $50 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $100 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 68¢ $32 7h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 7h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 32¢ $16 7h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 28¢ $31 7h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 7h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $67 24h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 62¢ $81 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $63 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $51 29h
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 97¢ $10 29h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 94¢ $22 29h
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 85¢ $29 29h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $10 29h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $12 29h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $22 29h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $25 29h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $221 29h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 67¢ $50 6d
Will there be a double Breen “Bang” during the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 68¢ $101 6d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $101 6d
Will there be a double Breen “Bang” during the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 59¢ $51 12d
Will Dylan Harper win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes $5 12d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 78¢ $101 20d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 54¢ $101 24d
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) BUY Knicks 24¢ $20 24d
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5 BUY No 55¢ $116 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $669.44 · official $669.44 (match) · 1820 history records