Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:48:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

50 0x504f…d9d8 sports 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$43 (+12%) realized +$51 · open −$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip

Net edge-21%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$86per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-17.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-9.2%	-17.8%	67%	33%	-24.6%
≤30d	3	-9.2%	-17.8%	67%	33%	-24.6%
≤90d	3	-9.2%	-17.8%	67%	33%	-24.6%
all	3	-9.2%	-17.8%	67%	33%	-24.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-17.8%	33%	-24.6%
10%	-25.7%	33%	-31.8%
15%	-32.9%	33%	-38.4%
20%	-39.4%	0%	-44.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 92% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -17% too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -9% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$21 vs −$94 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.44 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$18

Realized+$51

Unrealized−$8

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$86

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Norway (-2.5)	Norway	27¢	18¢	$26	$18	−$8 (-31%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	Jun 23	$121	−$94	-78%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$118	+$3	+3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$80	+$38	+48%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Norway (-2.5)	BUY Norway	27¢	$27	8m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	SELL	14¢	$27	9m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	BUY	60¢	$121	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	94¢	$121	2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$118	6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$118	6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$80	8h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.08 · official $22.25 · 7 history records