Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:05:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x504e…7ad9 crypto 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$36 (-7%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate6%2W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day26.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$47
14 days−$74
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-31.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -22.9% -30.3% 4% 4% -20.0%
≤30d 36 -24.7% -31.9% 6% 6% -24.2%
≤90d 36 -24.7% -31.9% 6% 6% -24.2%
all 36 -24.7% -31.9% 6% 6% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.9% 6% -24.2%
10% ← realistic here -38.4% 6% -31.4%
15% -44.3% 6% -38.0%
20% -49.8% 6% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses2 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage8d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day26.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $16 −$2 -13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -10%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $36 −$5 -13%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? Jun 15 $12 −$2 -15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$1 -7%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -16%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -10%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -11%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 14? Jun 15 $24 −$8 -34%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $9 −$2 -16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 -6%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$3 -26%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $26 −$5 -18%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $46 −$4 -8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $46 −$6 -13%
Will XRP reach $1.15 on June 11? Jun 11 $35 −$2 -7%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -10%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$4 -68%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $25 −$2 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $7 −$1 -18%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 10? Jun 10 $9 −$2 -18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $11 −$3 -31%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $17 −$2 -12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $16 +$14 +89%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$1 -20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $37 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $16 −$3 -20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -59%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $16 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 43m
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 44m
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 49m
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 49m
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 17h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 17h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 17h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 17h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 17h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 17h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 18h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 18h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 18h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 18h
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 18h
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 18h
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 20h
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 20h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 20h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 20h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 21¢ $5 20h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 227 history records