Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:18:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

50 0x504a…87f3 other 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$409 (+70%) realized +$372 · open +$37

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip

Net edge+16%after slip

Net WR31%break-even

Win rate44%7W / 9L

Drawdown12%max

Avg bet$32per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$9

7 days−$9

14 days−$9

30 days+$114

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +31%

net ROI/market (all)+15.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-24.5%	-31.7%	0%	0%	-31.7%
≤30d	2	+28.2%	+16.0%	50%	50%	+45.8%
≤90d	16	+27.7%	+15.5%	44%	31%	+73.0%
all	16	+27.7%	+15.5%	44%	31%	+73.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+15.5%	31%	+73.0%
10%	+4.4%	31%	+56.4%
15%	-5.6%	31%	+41.3%
20%	-14.9%	31%	+27.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 50% · top 2 75% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +91% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

29% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +28% · $-wt +91% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -39% → late +94% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$69 vs −$10 · ×6.71 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×5.22 per $1 lost it wins $5.22

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage

Net worth$186

Realized+$372

Unrealized+$37

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses7 / 9

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions2

Markets (closed)16 / 18

History coverage73d

Avg bet$32

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown12%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England?	Yes	13¢	17¢	$100	$131	+$31 (+31%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Yes	30¢	34¢	$49	$55	+$6 (+12%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$35	−$9	-24%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 30	$152	+$123	+81%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-24?	May 20	$10	$0	+2%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17?	May 17	$10	+$13	+123%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	May 17	$10	$0	+3%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	May 16	$31	+$241	+768%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?	May 16	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Serbia come in last place at Eurovision 2026?	May 16	$5	−$5	-95%
Will Greece come in last place at Eurovision 2026?	May 16	$3	−$3	-95%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship?	May 16	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026?	Apr 18	$20	−$20	-100%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	Apr 16	$9	−$9	-100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B	Apr 16	$94	+$103	+109%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?	Apr 16	$10	−$10	-100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A	Apr 16	$28	−$28	-100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP end in a draw?	Apr 15	$3	+$5	+180%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$50	16m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	4¢	$26	18m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	5¢	$35	1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England?	BUY Yes	13¢	$103	1h
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	SELL Yes	99¢	$275	28d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	54¢	$152	28d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-24?	SELL Yes	42¢	$10	38d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$23	41d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	SELL Yes	67¢	$10	41d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	SELL Yes	100¢	$272	41d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-24?	BUY Yes	40¢	$10	41d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17?	BUY Yes	44¢	$10	41d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	50¢	$5	41d
Will Serbia come in last place at Eurovision 2026?	BUY Yes	3¢	$5	41d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	63¢	$10	41d
Will Greece come in last place at Eurovision 2026?	BUY Yes	1¢	$3	41d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship?	BUY Yes	13¢	$5	41d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	BUY Yes	11¢	$31	41d
Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026?	BUY No	14¢	$20	72d
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	2¢	$9	72d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B	BUY FURIA	47¢	$94	72d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A	BUY Vitality	17¢	$8	73d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$8	73d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP end in a draw?	BUY Yes	35¢	$3	73d
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$10	73d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A	BUY Vitality	49¢	$20	73d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.93 · official $185.93 (match) · 31 history records