Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:50:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5048…a548 crypto 355 markets active 2d ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$47 (-0%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate54%191W / 164L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days+$1
14 days−$57
30 days−$238
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$371
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -16.7% -24.6% 52% 33% -9.5%
≤30d 243 -10.7% -19.2% 55% 40% -12.2%
≤90d 355 -12.5% -20.9% 54% 40% -13.0%
all 355 -12.5% -20.9% 54% 40% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 40% -13.0%
10% -28.4% 30% -21.4%
15% -35.4% 24% -29.0%
20% -41.7% 18% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses191 / 164
Open positions0
Markets (closed)355 / 355
History coverage65d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 355 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$4 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$6 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$15 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $19 +$7 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $22 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$9 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$11 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$12 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $150 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$6 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $150 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$7 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $34 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $29 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $27 −$3 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $7 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $7 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $4 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $7 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $7 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $8 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $7 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $7 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $7 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $7 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $7 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $19 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 867 history records