Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:39:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
50 0x5045…fc27 crypto 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate72%44W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$5
crypto 12% +$2
politics 4% $0
sports 2% −$1
tech 1% +$1
economics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 61 +0.1% -9.4% 72% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses44 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage536d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $67 $67 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 03 $58 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in April? May 05 $55 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in March? Apr 02 $60 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? Mar 03 $64 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? Feb 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? Feb 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in December? Jan 02 $34 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by December 31? Jan 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Dec 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? Dec 03 $63 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $18 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? Nov 04 $38 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe Oct 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September? Oct 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? Oct 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Sep 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? Aug 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? Aug 04 $65 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in June? Jul 04 $21 $0 +0%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jul 04 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? May 02 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 02 $4 $0 +1%
XRP all time high in April? May 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before May? May 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 200% and 300% on April 3 May 02 $13 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? May 02 $14 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will Jarred McCain win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 16 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will SER hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Apr 12 $64 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,800.00 again by March 31? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will another party win the second most seats in the next Canadian elec Mar 26 $25 $0 -0%
Will Justin Trudeau be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Mar 22 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the Eastern Conference? Mar 14 $5,080 −$5 -0%
Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? Mar 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 03 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $67 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 29d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $58 31d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in April? BUY No 100¢ $55 62d
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $6 91d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? BUY No 100¢ $13 92d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in March? BUY No 100¢ $60 94d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $9 122d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? BUY No 100¢ $64 124d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? BUY No 100¢ $23 151d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $37 151d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in December? BUY No 100¢ $34 183d
XRP all time high by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $35 183d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $12 211d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? BUY No 100¢ $63 212d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 99¢ $18 242d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? BUY No 99¢ $38 243d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe BUY Yes 100¢ $10 273d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September? BUY No 100¢ $19 273d
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? BUY No 100¢ $41 274d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $8 301d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? BUY No 100¢ $28 301d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $37 302d
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? BUY No 100¢ $10 334d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? BUY No 100¢ $22 334d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? BUY No 100¢ $43 334d
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $35 364d
Will Solana reach $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $21 364d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 396d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 396d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.20 · official $67.20 (match) · 129 history records