Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:04:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
50 0x5044…f67f other 107 markets active 2h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,713 (+8%) realized +$2,976 · open −$263
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%37W / 67L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$326per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$173est.
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$389now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,011
7 days+$3,298
14 days+$913
30 days+$722
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$2,369
sports 20% −$180
crypto 1% −$497
world 1% +$563
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +68.0% +52.0% 64% 64% +63.4%
≤30d 28 +13.8% +3.0% 46% 46% -4.7%
≤90d 51 -1.3% -10.7% 35% 35% -7.4%
all 104 -1.3% -10.7% 36% 34% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 34% -2.7%
10% -19.3% 33% -12.0%
15% -27.1% 32% -20.5%
20% -34.2% 29% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$493 vs −$238 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$389
Realized+$2,976
Unrealized−$263
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses37 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$173
Open positions3
Markets (closed)104 / 107
History coverage234d
Avg bet$326
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $262 $267 +$4 (+2%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $90 $75 −$15 (-17%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? No 30¢ 5¢ $300 $48 −$252 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $266 +$734 +276%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $184 +$816 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $92 −$90 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $387 +$551 +142%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $607 +$393 +65%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $693 +$822 +119%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Jun 21 $223 −$219 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $639 +$279 +44%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $215 −$210 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $164 −$160 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $635 +$383 +60%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,035 −$1,020 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $174 −$170 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $347 −$340 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $215 −$210 -98%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $627 −$620 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $487 −$480 -98%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $587 +$413 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $235 −$230 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $477 +$523 +109%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $256 −$250 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $696 +$304 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $717 −$704 -98%
Will Israel win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $337 +$663 +197%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 02 $577 +$1,209 +210%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $982 −$966 -98%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $1,234 −$1,220 -99%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $477 +$523 +109%
Will Aalesunds FK win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $235 −$230 -98%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $205 −$200 -98%
Will OL Lyonnes win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $249 −$249 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $417 +$583 +140%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud May 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $105 −$100 -96%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 13 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $93 −$62 -67%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $719 −$46 -6%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? May 06 $1,633 +$798 +49%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $370 −$363 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 21 $257 −$4 -2%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 21 $3,354 −$112 -3%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $290 −$284 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $300 +$679 +226%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 18 $230 −$225 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $190 −$185 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $370 +$611 +165%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Apr 14 $340 −$333 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $180 +$795 +442%
Will Aalesunds FK win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $173 −$173 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 30¢ $306 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 26¢ $266 30h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 18¢ $184 30h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 9¢ $92 47h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 94¢ $938 47h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $387 2d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $607 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $693 4d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists BUY Yes 43¢ $223 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $639 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $215 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $164 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $1,018 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $635 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,035 8d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $174 9d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $270 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $347 10d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $215 11d
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $627 11d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $487 12d
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 58¢ $587 12d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $92 12d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 23¢ $235 12d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $256 13d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $477 14d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $696 15d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 40¢ $407 19d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 40¢ $310 19d
Will Israel win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 33¢ $337 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $389.20 · official $390.25 (match) · 226 history records