Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:21:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
50 0x5043…b5d4 sports 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$37 (+24%) realized +$38 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +70% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +54% what you keep after slip
Net edge+54%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$16
other 28% +$38
sports 26% +$16
economics 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+53.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +70.1% +53.9% 67% 67% +56.6%
≤30d 3 +70.1% +53.9% 67% 67% +56.6%
≤90d 3 +70.1% +53.9% 67% 67% +56.6%
all 3 +70.1% +53.9% 67% 67% +56.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +53.9% 67% +56.6%
10% +39.1% 67% +41.6%
15% +25.7% 67% +27.9%
20% +13.4% 67% +15.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +73% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +70% · $-wt +73% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$17 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.3 per $1 lost it wins $3.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$38
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 7
History coverage4d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision? Yes 12¢ 9¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $10 +$16 +158%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $25 +$39 +152%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Japan BUY 32¢ $31 11m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $40 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 3¢ $17 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $10 21h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $25 23h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $2 3d
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.45 · official $101.45 · 12 history records