Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:34:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x503f…8989 crypto 542 markets active 1h ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5,983 (+1%) realized +$5,983 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate96%519W / 23L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$1,749per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$45
14 days+$113
30 days+$225
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% +$1,758
other 32% +$3,097
world 6% +$869
finance 3% +$70
sports 1% +$78
politics 0% +$76
economics 0% +$10
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 116 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 254 -0.3% -9.8% 98% 0% -9.3%
all 542 -0.2% -9.7% 96% 1% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 1% -9.0%
10% -18.3% 1% -17.7%
15% -26.2% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.5% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$2,435) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$136 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.19 per $1 lost it wins $3.19
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,983
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses519 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)542 / 542
History coverage253d
Avg bet$1,749
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 542 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $255 on June 23? Jun 23 $95 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $600 on June 23? Jun 23 $95 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $380 on June 23? Jun 23 $115 $0 +0%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $74 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $220 on June 23? Jun 23 $95 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 23? Jun 23 $907 +$2 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 on June 23? Jun 23 $115 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $375 on June 23? Jun 23 $115 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $215 on June 23? Jun 23 $361 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on June 23? Jun 23 $95 $0 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on June 23? Jun 23 $95 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 23? Jun 23 $499 +$1 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 23? Jun 23 $76 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 on June 23? Jun 23 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $2,497 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 23? Jun 23 $302 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 22? Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $81 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 22? Jun 23 $120 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on June 22? Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $2,524 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $2,822 +$3 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 21? Jun 22 $1,294 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $526 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 21? Jun 21 $1,234 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $1,502 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $2,812 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $2,803 +$8 +0%
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 18 $2,799 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 17? Jun 18 $73 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 17? Jun 18 $676 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $1,049 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $998 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $748 +$1 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 17? Jun 17 $365 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 17? Jun 17 $129 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,916 +$2 +0%
Will Solana reach $85 on June 16? Jun 17 $190 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $2,600 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $2,784 +$6 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 15? Jun 15 $556 +$1 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 15? Jun 15 $27 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 15? Jun 15 $2,198 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $2,779 +$3 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? Jun 15 $2,769 +$10 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $2,763 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2,013 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $748 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $159 44m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $415 50m
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $215 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $361 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 100¢ $74 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $499 2h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $333 2h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $76 2h
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $375 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $115 2h
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $380 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $115 2h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $255 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $95 2h
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $95 2h
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $95 2h
Will Meta (META) close above $600 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $95 2h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $95 2h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $115 2h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $220 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $95 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $302 15h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $100 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $2,497 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 24h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 100¢ $745 24h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 100¢ $1,779 24h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $81 26h
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $120 26h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,822 38h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1,294 46h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $999 46h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $526 46h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2316 history records