Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:21:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x503f…46dc crypto 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 213d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized +$3 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%17W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$45
14 days−$70
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$29
crypto 18% +$36
world 7% −$32
tech 5% +$11
sports 3% −$16
culture 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -53.6% -58.0% 12% 12% -16.4%
≤30d 18 -0.9% -10.4% 17% 17% -14.7%
≤90d 73 -5.4% -14.4% 19% 19% -14.2%
all 78 -3.3% -12.5% 22% 22% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 22% -12.7%
10% -20.9% 18% -21.0%
15% -28.6% 18% -28.6%
20% -35.6% 18% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$3 · ×2.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

213d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses17 / 61
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)78 / 82
History coverage213d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $13 $6 −$7 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 26 $13 −$10 -81%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $539 −$23 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 01 $4 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 01 $4 +$6 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 31 $4 +$36 +1031%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 12 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 08 $4 +$6 +170%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 06 $16 −$1 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 06 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 06 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 06 $4 −$4 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 06 $4 +$6 +178%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 06 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 29 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 29 $1 +$1 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Apr 29 $1 +$9 +1239%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 29 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 29 $1 +$3 +223%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 29 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 29 $20 −$1 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 29 $0 $0 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-04? Apr 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $92 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $97 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $92 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $97 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $92 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $97 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 81¢ $81 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $18 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 81¢ $16 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $7 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $18 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $49 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $55 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $39 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.40 · official $27.40 (match) · 368 history records