Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:40:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

50 0x503e…6609 other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$7 (+3%) realized +$7 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip

Net edge+5%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown24%max

Avg bet$78per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 58d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+4.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-1.4%	-10.8%	0%	0%	-10.8%
≤30d	1	-1.4%	-10.8%	0%	0%	-10.8%
≤90d	2	+15.6%	+4.6%	50%	50%	-6.0%
all	2	+15.6%	+4.6%	50%	50%	-6.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+4.6%	50%	-6.0%
10%	-5.4%	50%	-15.0%
15%	-14.6%	0%	-23.2%
20%	-22.9%	0%	-30.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +16% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$2 · ×4.21 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.21 per $1 lost it wins $4.21

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage

Net worth$105

Realized+$7

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage58d

Avg bet$78

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown24%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$105	$105	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Jun 18	$108	−$2	-1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 21?	Apr 21	$20	+$7	+33%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$108	1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	SELL Yes	82¢	$106	1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	BUY Yes	82¢	$108	2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 21?	BUY Yes	74¢	$20	57d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.84 · official $104.84 (match) · 5 history records